India's GDP forecast

India has been integrating its economy with the world economy. Recently, the Chief statistical officer of India dropped a bombshell when he  announced that India has emerged as the fastest growing economy of the world, in so much as its GDP growth had touched 7.6% during 2015-16 while in Q4 it has garnered 7.9%. This starling announcement made country’s leading Economists, analysts, experts, and even Reserve Bank of India sit up in astonishment.

The bulk of country’s GDP growth had soured to Rs 2.14 lakh Crores in 2015-16 while the figure during the previous fiscal was Rs 35,284 Cr. Government sources point out to the huge difference due to differences in national income under production method and expenditure method and varied interpretation of data.

Manufacturing sector is said to have grown by 8.1% at current prices. However, it is not matched by the growth in industrial production (IIP) which is stated to be around 2.4%. How could manufacturing growth be strong against weak exports which have been contracting month after month?

If private consumption grew astronomically as contended by government data, Why are most of the balance sheets of Corporate India showed little or no growth and reduced realization and low operating profits? Corporate balance sheets are stressed. Exports, a barometer of growth sulked, posting negative growth over a period of last 15 months. Adverse global trends do not augur a smooth ride for Indian exports which did not reach the desired target! Jobs have fallen, investments have been slow to come by, disinvestment far below the anticipated target, etc. Bank performance have dipped, and even profit making banks have reported losses- Bank of India posted a loss of Rs 6 K Cr, while Canara Bank recorded (-) 4 K Cr (loss) and SBI’s profit dipped by 66%. Banking Crisis, failure of multiple banks can derail an economy from its growth path. Investment rates has fallen sharply, gross fixed capital formation has plunged. State of the banking industry sector require reboot, as there is urgency in strengthening private sector banks and loan growth to industry to revive strongly.

With lower international crude oil prices holding sway, Indian economy was bound to do well. But lower the international crude oil prices, higher is the petrol/diesel domestic (Indian) prices. When Crude oil was priced $ 123/barrel internationally, petrol bunk prices for petrol was Rs 63/litre. When the international price stood at $ 50/barrel, Indian petrol prices cost Rs 64/litre. Generally, lower oil prices should translate to higher consumption. But in India, the oil prices benefit was not passed on to the consumer, hence economic growth posted negligible growth. Government levied a higher excise duty on petrol, as the duty in 2014 was Rs 9.10 per litre while, the duty collected in 2016 was Rs 21.48/litre almost 2.5 times more. Government has stopped making good the under recoveries (conversion of crude to petrol/diesel) to marketing companies.

The imports have fallen. Substitution of components and purchase of machinery to increase productivity has come down. Still how could manufacturing sector make giant strides?

There has been a record Rs 17,000 Cr drop in investment, and according to experts, the actual rate of growth may be around 4%, about half of what has been claimed. Is the growth indicated magical or utopian? Is the growth data fudged as stated by experts? How long can lies, damn lies, continue to decorate India’s GDP statistics?

Raghuram Rajan's exit will have deep impact on Indian economy

Raghuram Rajan has chosen the dignified way to exit as Governor of Reserve Bank of India, as his extension became the subject matter of fevered speculation. Government could have averted this step by taking Governor Rajan into confidence which it did not do. Rajan’s three year term ends on September 4, 2016.

The Governor has enormous credibility with international investors, and his leaving will have an impact on foreign inflows. Government ‘s knee jerk reaction stems from the fact that it has made Foreign Direct Investment in Defence and Civil Aviation 100% while Pharma it is 74%. If the past 2 years are an indication, will the inflow of Foreign investment higher than the foreign outflows will require enormous goodwill. With America in the Presidential election mood, and Brexit anxiety casts a spell in Europe, will there be an adequacy of foreign investment inflow; not to talk about Foreign Institutional Investment in our stock markets!

The reason why private investment is taking time is that there is over capacity on expectation of high growth. Everyone had borrowed and they were leveraged, hence Corporate Inc does not have the appetite to borrow more. The opportunities for income generation are increasing. But traditional jobs are depleting. We have to shift people’s expectations to this reality. Looking for jobs will not help.

Governor Rajan skillfully managed the country’s currency, inflation and foreign exchange reserves in a faltering world economic climate. His crack down on the ever greening of bank loans forced the banks to acknowledge bad loans rather than throw good money after bad. He maintained a tight balance between aspirations for growth and concerns about rising prices.

When Rajan leaves after tenure of good 3 years at the helm of the central bank, Indian economy is in a much better shape than it was when he received it. His successor has an enormous responsibility on his shoulders.

Modern Day Bhisma's words does not count- LK Advani Saga

Lal Kishan Advani was one of the greatest leaders representing BJP in Indian Politics. He was the Prime Ministerial candidate in 2004, wherein a major political upheaval caused BJP to quit; and in 2009, he was Prime Minister-in-waiting. Wait he did, but the responsibility eluded him. BJP lost both the elections. Now in 2014, when the political stars are good, chances have again made him lose his grip on the Party he had founded. He was a patriarch. Now, he is likely to be elevated to the post of Patriarch Emeritus, a title for coveted discarded former bosses! It is an irony of fate, that Advani nourished young blood. He gave leadership to many youngsters. He supported Modi, in the turbulent 2002 at the same venue 2002; after 12 years, the time has turned full circle. It was Advani who was cast aside and was eclipsed top to bottom though he sulked being absent from the meet, first time in the last many years since BJP’s formation. This brings us to the story of Rama and Hanuman. Rama was represented by Advani in the present saga and Hanuman by the political tiny tots of BJP. Hanuman was sent as Rama’s emissary to the Court of Ravana to find and spot Sita. When Hanuman saw Sita, he could have accomplished what Rama accomplished after a War that devastated the entire Sri Lankan army and loss of life and limb to many others in the monkey sena. Hanuman knew that this was his tryst with destiny to prove to Rama his unbinding loyalty. Why did he resisted carrying Sita and fly away to Rameshwaram. He could have accomplished his mission and avoided a costly War. He could have crushed Ravana and his entire army, whether he had miraculous weapons in his armory or not. But being an obedient bhakata, and knowing full well that he was only an emissary, he did not take a role that would have catapulted him to a hero and twisted the story of Ramayana. He did what he was told, and never changed the script. BJP was the life line of Advani. He was the chankya, who plotted its poll strategy. He was Rama in the BJP. How could his chela, the modern Hanuman, eclipse him? There is one stark difference. Rama avatar is over. This is the era of Kalki avatar. We are in Kaliyug. Modi is the new found Robin Hood whose Sherwood Forest is the battle field of Indian electoral politics. He is the primus interus pars of modern polity. But can he deliver? Stories of treachery abounds another Indian epic, Mahabharata. When he say Dhridarashtra, the blind King whose quote appears in the first line of Bhagavt Gita, quote: Sanjay, tell me, what my children and Pandu’s sons are doing in the battle of Kurukshetra? Panavas and Kauravas had a childhood, together under Dhridarashtra as on Pandu’s death, Dhidarashtra had ascended Pandu’s throne. Many describe this stanza to drive home King’s selfishness, as the King. was equally responsible for the well being of Panadavas and Kauravas. Is it the fault of Dhridarashtra to be selfish, when the author, Vysya who had written these lines was himself blindfolded to his character Dhridarashtra? Actors only play their part; the author of the epic was responsible for that curious acting by the blind king? In the present script, Modi represents those who are disgruntled to the present state of affairs of BJP in which Advani’s role cannot be washed away. There might be a lot of angst. But those who believe in their growth only, forget that their growth is synonymous to the growth of the organization they claim to represent. If the bell curve of BJP does not attain a position of importance to lead the Government in 2014, to what position will Modi be regaled? History alone can tell.

Rule of Law jolted in Cricketers case

Rule of Law in rude jolt-Cricketers Case at Delhi In a sensational twist to the saga of Sreesanth and 22 others facing certain sections of the Indian Penal Code before the Chief Judicial Magistrate, Delhi, MOCCA was added, which resulted in transfer of the case automatically to the Sessions. While the bail petitions of Sreesanth was to be heard by the Judicial First Class Magistrate, the case was made more forceful by applying the provisions of MOCCA passed by the Maharashtra Assembly which also was made effective in the state of Delhi from January 2002 by appropriate notification. No other state, it need to be emphasized, has made provisions of MOCCA applicable within their territorial jurisdiction. The Police officer attached to the Delhi Police made a comment that there was enough proof of evidence with them to impose sections that were there in MOCCA applicable to the accused. Just before the bail application was to be heard, without even informing the trial court in advance, the Police presumably, because two accused facing similar charges in Mumbai were let on bail, applied stringent sections of MOCCA and adding them to First Information Report already filed, to prevent Sreesanth to get bail. Obviously, it is the view of the Delhi police, if Sections under MOCCA were invoked the accused cannot be released on bail. Supreme Court in State of Maharashtra Vs Bharat Shanti Lal Shah and Others (SC 2009) struck down as unconstitutional Sec 21(5) of MOCCA stating that “The provision of denying his right to seek bail is not even in consonance with the object sought to be achieved by the Act, on the face of provisions, this is an excessive restriction”. It concurred with the High Court of Bombay judgment in the Criminal Writ petition 1738/2002 and 110/2003 filed by Bharat Shah, stating that restrictions on the power to grant bail should not be pushed too far, and it should be left to the discretion of the Court to arrive at a just conclusion based on the omissions and commissions of the crime and the evidence available before him. If the Court is satisfied that a person can be granted bail, power to grant bail rests on him”. Delhi Police officer was off the mark in his knowledge of MOCCA provisions in the light of clear SC ruling in two cases. The Delhi Police Officer further said that they had irrefutable evidence to link the accused to organized crime rackets, even though their acts fall under cheating, and criminal breach of trust, if proved beyond doubt. The statement attributed to the Police officer that let the accused prove they are innocent is full of flaw, as the SC had ruled unambiguously that in a “criminal case, the onus lies on the prosecution to prove affirmatively the guilt of the person. Further, action of one accused cannot be used as evidence against another”, as done by the Delhi Police. This is against the fundamental Rule of Law. As per MOCCA, the cricketers have abeted, facilitated, organized crime, and accumulated unaccounted wealth. MOCCA seeks to prevent to control disruptive activities. But they need evidence of nexus of the accused with the commission of crime.SC has held that “conspiracy is not a term of act. It has a definite connotation. In any criminal activity, mens rea (criminal intention) is a necessary ingredient for commission of a Crime under any Law including MOCCA. ‘Statement of objects and Reasons background of MOCCA should be looked into under the doctrine of pith and substance’ (SC Appeal 523 of 2005 dated 7 April 2005 Justices NS Hegde, B Singh, S Sinha)(Ranjitsing Brahmajeetsingh Sharma Vs State of Maharastra)(SCC 294) In AIR 1975 SC 1975), SC held that abettor should have intentionally aided in the commission of the Crime. Mere proof that the crime charged could not have been committed intrerpositively of alleged abet or enough compliance with the requirements of Sec 107 of the Indian penal Code read with sub section ‘2’ of Sec 3 of MOCCA. Criminal Appeal 2008 before SC State of Maharashtra Vs Bharat Shanti Lal Shah & Others (Bench: Altamas Kabir and Markandey Kunju) where constitutional validity of 2(d), e,f,Sec 3 and Sec 4 which was held unconstitutional vis-à-vis Art 14 and 21 of the Indian Constitution upheld by Bombay High Court was challenged. SC held that Sec 21(5) was unconstitutional- refusal for grant of bail. A statute, it is a trite, should not be interpreted in such a manner as would lead to absurdity, SC had warned. For want of a nail, a battle was lost, there is a saying. Cricketers who took money to bowl in a particular over as pre-determined by bookies during IPL matches were sought to be depicted as having league with notorious anti social elements is farfetched. Srisanth’s cricketing career is as good as over. The timing of his arrest leads to suspicion. That his arrest was made in such a hurry, spontaneously, without caring to recover all the articles which were in his room, further aggravates the suspicions. Srisanth did not have peers both in the cricketing administration and in the political high ups is self evident that he alone is made a victim of this unsavory saga. Delhi Police have a design. Time alone will prove what it is. The ever ebullient channels, vying with each other as espousing public cause, have imposed their stoic silence over the clamping of the charges by the Delhi Police on the cricket trio at Delhi.

I Go spiritual

I always cared for recognition, which was a materialistic pursuit. I wanted to attain peaks however treacherous are the mountain paths. I had always believed in a change, and a change for the better of the existing environment including my work envoironment, in whatever I did. I always believed that destiny is the creation and fruit of one’s hard labour. I had worked in various organizations in various capacities. While the 7th and 8th Plan were on, certain projects exclusively created at Karwar like Karwar port, Konkan Railway connectivity, Kadamba naval Base, Kaiga atomic plant, I had an important role as Economic Analyst, in projecting Karwar and its expected growth. I had very interesting assignments during my Confederation of Indian Industry days, where the vortex of industrialists and India’s hi-fi entrepreneurs were part and parcel of this body. I experimented plethora of activities while in Indo-American Chambers of Commerce, a bi-national Chamber. There are many Chambers and trade Associations in Chennai, and the spirit de corpse amongst the Organizatonal Secretaries was something unique; they were a fraternity with personal bondings! My tenure at Tirupur Exporters Association under a dynamic president A Sakthivel peaked my visibility. My Advisorship with Coir Board, and Coconut Development Board, took the exports of coir and Coconut to the pinnacle. These two products gained considerable visibility against 0% visibility in the third millennium. I also had assignments with pricewaterhouseCoopers, which was really interesting. I learnt what professional touch was. With good scrores written in the so called chequered career of mine, I was on cloud nine, though they meant nothing. Zero is Zero and Zero is also infinity. How it could be, you may well ask. I am no mathematician, hence cannot explain. During my different life tenures, I have always seen that ‘stupidity was always rewarded, and sincere performance was always scorned.’ Unworthy got the spotlight while the hard work of some got total neglect. When you near 60, you get into the mood of mystic, felt the great bard of Stafford Avon (in his poem Seven Stages of Man). You become silent and believe that sublime is in devotion or in listening to discourses or practice of yoga, saddhana, and yoga with mediation. But others believe in caring and giving and longing for helping others who are in search of help. There are various forms of manifestations of munificence. I was less engaged in working out ideas that could become products having economic value. That was pure materialism. My wife Indira was very serious about meditation. She believed in the doctrine of dharma, karma and vision for attainment of self realization. She had travelled the world, met saints, sages, powerful personalities. She was a regular visitor to the libraries not only in various cities of India, even in the far away United states. She read. Re-read. Gathered more and more information of the values. She was fascinated by the famous land marks of divine abode, and other mysterious temples which were steeped in history. India lived through its Masters. The propound wisdom of these Masters were transferred from the master to the discipline and then to his discipline, etc. The world or the universe was within. This inner atman can do anything, go anywhere, and do the impossible. There is nothing impossible, said Napoleon the great general of France. Yes; he was right. There have been many authours, who have penned the story of Himalayas, and the saga of many rishis and yogis who have lived for 4 to 5 centuries have been recaptured in these lively narrations. I have read many books relating to the Himalayan stories, and the contents revel that the great masters and seers seem to be in pursuit of taking the world to a nobler path, which is desirable and needed today, more than ever. My wife had an interesting meeting with Rosalind Edith Williams (1903-1996) who along with her husband D Rajgopal along with Jiddu Krishnamurthy founded the Happy Valley School, Ojai, California, USA. Also associated with this institution was Guide Ferrando, Aldous Huxley. Jiddu Krishnamurthy was a great spiritual guru, who had various experiences and has written many books which were of international repute. All these people were associated with Annie Besant of theosophical society fame, a great fighter for India’s independence. Aldous Huxley has written a book “After Many a summer (1939), and modeled the character of Virgina, which was the life story of Rosalind. My wife met with Rosalind in Ojai and was fortunate to have spent some time wit her. After my wife’s return from Ojai, she wrote a letter to Rosalind, and her reply in her own hand addressed to my wife in India shows her concern for a person who met her for an hour or so.[Letter scanned and re-produced) This told me that humility, whoever great can be the man, confers greatness on the person who imparts it sincerely. Great people have great traits, which simple people cannot copy. But their ideals are worth emulation. I respect Rosalind for her great simplicity, humility and compassion. Such people are rare.

Four temples dedicated to celebrated quartet of Ramayana

Nalambalam Pilgrimage in Karkatakam Come June 1, its equivalent in the Malayalam calendar is Edavapathi, when the rains begin to lash in Kerala with all ferocity. It also synchronizes with the opening of the Schools in Kerala. The onset of the monsoons is widely welcomed, as on the strength of the rains, Kerala’s commercial crops depend heavily. Karkidakam, the last month in the Malayalam calendar when Sun transit Cancer between July 16 and August 16). The month sees people attending temples every day, and the evenings are spent listening to various discourses and chanting of Ramayana. Kerala gets a festive and religious fervour during the month.

Nalambalam, means four temples, which are in different locations of Thrissur district in central Kerala where the shrines of Lord Rama (Triprayar), Bharatha (Koodalmanikyam at irijalikuda), Lakshmana (Moozhikulam, Ernakulam district), Shatrugana (Payammal), the celebrated quartet of the epic Ramayana. They are one of the most popular religious tours of South India. Myriads of spiritually inclined tourists from all across the Indian subcontinent and abroad sign up for these tours from Thrissur. A trip to Nalambalam is a highly sacred auspicious event during Karkidakam, a highly sacred month in the Malayalam calendar.

Nalambalam Yatra begins from the Rama temple in Triprayar and ends up at Shatrughna Temple in Payyammal. It is customary to visit the four temples in the order Rama, Bharata, Lakshmana and Shatrughna respectively. Triprayar Temple houses a 6 ft tall idol of the Lord, holding Shankha', Sudarsanachakra, Stick and Garland, in a very ferocious form facing east. He is seen in standing posture. Vedi Vazhipadu is the main offering, but that does not match with the Lord. There are many lunatic beliefs that Hanuman burnt many fire crackers on the ear of the Lord, but as Hanuman can't do any harm to Rama, that is not good to believe it. The temple is under the control of Cochin Devaswom Board, an autonomous body. Koodalmanikyam Temple houses another 6 ft tall idol of the Lord, seen in ferocious form, facing east, in standing posture holding the same things as seen at Triprayar. This is one of the rare temples where only one idol is there. The temple has a private devaswom.

Moozhikkulam is the only temple in Ernakulam District, and the only one among the four temples, which belong to the 108 Divya Desams, praised by Alwars. The temple houses another 6 ft tall idol, similar to the idol at Guruvayoor, holding Shankha, Sudarsana chakra, Mace and Lotus, in standing posture, facing east. Payammal is the smallest temple, having the smallest idol, also similar to that at Guruvayoor. This is the way to praise them: First, we have to worship Hanuman. Then worship Rama at Triprayar during his nirmalyadarsanam. Then worship Bharata at Koodalmanikyam and Lakshmana at Moozhikkulam during their Usha Poojas. Then worship Shatrughna at Payammal during his Ucha Pooja. 1. Triprayar Sreerama Temple Triprayar is in the middle of Guruvayoor – Kodungallore route. Those who want to come via Trichur should reach Cherpu and proceed went wards to reach the east nada of the temple . Here is the famous Rama temple. This is the first temple to visit as part of Nalambalam Pilgrimage. Darshan is possible from 3am – 12.30pm and 5pm to 7.30pm . Meenuttu and Vedi are important Vazipadu. Sited at a distance of 22 km from Thrissur, the Thriprayar temple consists of a group of four shrines that has been consecrated to none other than Lord Rama. The three day long Thriprayar Ekadasi celebrated during the month of Vrischikam .i.e. November to December in the Gregorian calender is one of the primary festivals that is celebrated with lots of pomp and grandeur. Prayers timings in the temple are between 4.30 am to 12.30 pm during the day and 4.30 pm to 8 pm in the evening. 2. Koodalmanikam Temple, Irinjalakuda This is a unique Vaishnava Temple and the second temple to visit. From Triprayar proceed in the Kodungallore route and divert from Edamuttam or Moonnupeedika. Irinjalakuda is about 20km away from Triprayar. Darshan is possible from 3am – 12 noon, and 5pm to 8pm. Important Vazhipatus are Thamaramala , Brinjal Nivedyam, Vedi , Gheelamp , Meeunttu. 3. Moozhikkulam Sree Lakshmanapermal Temple Moozhikkulam Temple is the third temple to visit and is dedicated to Lakshmana. This is in Ernakulam District near to famous Annamanada Mahadeva temple proceeds along Vellankallore in Irinjalakuda route to Kodungallore and reaches Mala, Annamanada and then Moozhikkulam. Darshan is possible from 4 to 12.30 and 5 to 8. 4. Payammal Temple This is the last temple to visit. Reach Vellangallore and proceed went wards 4 km to reach Aripalam. Take right turn and reach the temple . Important Vazhipadu is Sudarshanan dedication. Darshan time is as given along temples. The Holy Ramayana month of 'Karkitaka' begins on July 17th this year. The Holy book of Ramayana is one of the very old books and is one that is read widely. The month of Ramayana has a great significance in many places in India. In Kerala, the Malayalam month of Karkidakam is a month of heavy down pour and is considered as a month of scarcity. In this month, the people go for Ayurvedic treatments (sukhachikithsa) in order to rejenuate their body and mind. And equally important is the reading of Ramayana to wash out their sins. In many of the Hindu families, this tradition is followed now also. In Kerala, 'Adhyathma Ramayanam Kilippattu' written by Sri Thunjathu Ezhuthachan is more popular than the original Valmiki Ramayana.

Leave the Caged Lions alone

Free Expression does not mean Right to spread incorrect information We would be celebrating the Independence Day in August 15, 2012, having gained independence from the Bitish rule where sun never set 62 years ago. A day we need to rejoice and a day we have to introspect as to where we have moved as a free country after being free. More than 50% of the present generation might be half the age, for, they were born quarter century later to 1947. But if we take a few passive shots, as a country, we have become more corrupt, more percentage of people live on the meekly subsidy of the Government, illiteracy remaining a little lower than what it was during the British rule, and the rich having made 25% growth in their population etc. The fourth estate has become powerful, can even call a spade a spade, if not can pull down a government with its expose of one incident or event. We have Anne Hazare fighting for the Lok ayukta Bill to be passed when the log (people) of this country has become mute to what is happening for they had given themselves the Constitution but had no power to criticize the government. The judiciary has taken the powers of governance from the executive, who are supposed to govern the country, contend the government. We had a series of public loot in the form of 2 G, Commonwealth Games, Adarsh scam, Chief Ministers’ quota of land allotment, army scam, vote for money scam, MP voting scam, and recently, 2 battalions of 1,000 army men marched to Delhi in the dead of the night towards Rasina Hill, when The Army General’s plea before the Supreme Court regarding his DoB need to be adjudicated. This was a storm in a tea cup or was it a gentle wind in the soup cup? This was reported by a newspaper on its front page in font 32. The nation was taken by storm, created more frenzy than India’s win in the World Cup Cricket. When Views, Reviews, Previews and interviews, exceed the lakshmana rekha, would you call it a newspaper scoop? There is every reason to believe that we have an inept government, a Prime Minister with no power, all of which resting with the Party Presidents, and DNA (Do nothing Antony). Antony has never faced a crisis in his political career, and whenever a crisis was enforced on him, he rather ran away than bravely facing it. He has to his credit, the highest resignations as Chief Minister, Kerala, one, when he was part of the Syndicate Congress, CM, Kerala, his party decided to support Smt indira Gandhi who was a candidate in the Chickmangalore election when the State was embroiled in the famous Rajan case. As Minister of Civil Supplies of GoI, he resigned rather than face the heat. Today, he wields power, but can you narrate a single project he has brought to Kerala? None. Not even to his native place Shertalla, where Coir industry is facing grave crisis. The Defence Minister escalated the crisis in the Defence ministry when there was no crisis. We spend our time on issueless issues. 10 sturdy boys from Pakistan held the country to ransom for 72 hours (Mumbai attack). It took the might of the army, t repulse it, though some of them sacrificed their lives. Let us give our defence forces what is their due. Honour. Let us honour each one of them for the selfless sacrifice they have been doing while we have been criticizing everybody other than ourselves for the country’s growth. This is too sensitive a subject where the 4th estate needs to indulge in needless debate. Right to Information does not mean Right to spread information without solid proof.