There are many contemporary themes where people largely have opinions on their own. My thoughts, due to years of experience, has undergone maturity. Based on practical experience, I have attempted to pen my thoughts. Constructive, positive.
Thursday, September 20, 2012
I Go spiritual
Friday, July 20, 2012
Four temples dedicated to celebrated quartet of Ramayana
Labels:
Bharatha,
four chracters of Ramayana,
incarnation,
Kooalmanickam,
Lakshmana,
mahakavya,
Moozhikulam,
naluambalam,
Payammal,
Ramayana,
Rma,
Shatrugana,
Trichur dist,
Tripriyar
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Leave the Caged Lions alone
Free Expression does not mean Right to spread incorrect information
We would be celebrating the Independence Day in August 15, 2012, having gained independence from the Bitish rule where sun never set 62 years ago. A day we need to rejoice and a day we have to introspect as to where we have moved as a free country after being free. More than 50% of the present generation might be half the age, for, they were born quarter century later to 1947.
But if we take a few passive shots, as a country, we have become more corrupt, more percentage of people live on the meekly subsidy of the Government, illiteracy remaining a little lower than what it was during the British rule, and the rich having made 25% growth in their population etc. The fourth estate has become powerful, can even call a spade a spade, if not can pull down a government with its expose of one incident or event. We have Anne Hazare fighting for the Lok ayukta Bill to be passed when the log (people) of this country has become mute to what is happening for they had given themselves the Constitution but had no power to criticize the government. The judiciary has taken the powers of governance from the executive, who are supposed to govern the country, contend the government. We had a series of public loot in the form of 2 G, Commonwealth Games, Adarsh scam, Chief Ministers’ quota of land allotment, army scam, vote for money scam, MP voting scam, and recently, 2 battalions of 1,000 army men marched to Delhi in the dead of the night towards Rasina Hill, when The Army General’s plea before the Supreme Court regarding his DoB need to be adjudicated. This was a storm in a tea cup or was it a gentle wind in the soup cup? This was reported by a newspaper on its front page in font 32. The nation was taken by storm, created more frenzy than India’s win in the World Cup Cricket. When Views, Reviews, Previews and interviews, exceed the lakshmana rekha, would you call it a newspaper scoop? There is every reason to believe that we have an inept government, a Prime Minister with no power, all of which resting with the Party Presidents, and DNA (Do nothing Antony). Antony has never faced a crisis in his political career, and whenever a crisis was enforced on him, he rather ran away than bravely facing it. He has to his credit, the highest resignations as Chief Minister, Kerala, one, when he was part of the Syndicate Congress, CM, Kerala, his party decided to support Smt indira Gandhi who was a candidate in the Chickmangalore election when the State was embroiled in the famous Rajan case. As Minister of Civil Supplies of GoI, he resigned rather than face the heat. Today, he wields power, but can you narrate a single project he has brought to Kerala? None. Not even to his native place Shertalla, where Coir industry is facing grave crisis. The Defence Minister escalated the crisis in the Defence ministry when there was no crisis.
We spend our time on issueless issues. 10 sturdy boys from Pakistan held the country to ransom for 72 hours (Mumbai attack). It took the might of the army, t repulse it, though some of them sacrificed their lives. Let us give our defence forces what is their due. Honour. Let us honour each one of them for the selfless sacrifice they have been doing while we have been criticizing everybody other than ourselves for the country’s growth. This is too sensitive a subject where the 4th estate needs to indulge in needless debate. Right to Information does not mean Right to spread information without solid proof.
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
Government dispenses
The Central Government has a dog in the manger policy for some States, while it has chewing the cud procedures for some other States. The Union of India which is a union of States, receive different types of accommodation depending upon the Political situation prevailing at the time of sharing of the largesse. For some, the Union government is philanthropical but for some others it is a miser like Scoorge in Charles Dickens play. But vivid discrimination notwithstanding, some States are more equal than others. The thundering Chief Ministers get things done for their states by resorting to Political blackmail.
West Bengal’s roar will make Parliament Road comes to a halt. Top Congress party bosses feel mellowed in the company of the simple lady of West Bengal. If she dares, government sheepishly accommodates her in spite of vehement protest by the man in blue turban- Montek Singh Aluwaliah. Government never seeks Planning Commission’s suggestions to the demand of Lady who sits in Writers Building, whether there is money in the treasury or not. She is a Lion in front of the timid Ruling party.
The ex boss of Tamilnadu when he tries to get up from his wheel chair, the whole Government runs to him. When the ruling party hears that the ex boss of TN is coming to Delhi, the prime minister faints. His daughter Kanimozhi threatened the government with serious consequences if India did not vote against Sri Lanka in the US submitted resolution asking for prosecuting the human rights violators during the army’s war against Sri Lanka Tamils. The Government meekly responded by saying that India will vote against Sri Lanka resolution. Our Foreign Policy, as laid down by the architect of India Pdt Jawaharlal Nehru has been the policy of non-alignment. Madam Jayalalitha turned 180 degrees when she agreed to the suggestion that the nuclear plant at Kondamkulam in Tamil Nadu had significant safeguards and the state needed badly power to run the industries. The same CM refused the sane assurance of Bharat Ratna Abdul Kalam regarding the safety of the plant and commented that she was not satisfied with the assurance.
At any hour, Congress government will help and assist Omar Abdullah, time and again. . In Andhra, solution to bifurigation of the state to Andhra and Telegana has taken the state to stupor. There are states ruled by BJP, which gets support sometimes, brick bats some other times. But the opposition namely the Congress in the BJP ruled state. Depending upon the stature of their leader, will get support from the Centre. Maharashtra, with Mumbai which is the commercial capital, the government will erase every full stop to please the State. Shard Pawar, the powerful man from there, fretted and fumed when Government applied break to Cotton exports, after it had crossed the export target. It took just a day for the DGFT to over-turn its order. Similar problem exist in sugar export.
Gujarat, the birth place of Gandhi, with its BJP connection is another state, which may get central support like the monsoon rains- unpredictable! But the Gujarati businessman knows how to pull the wires in the Central secretariat, and get his demand fulfilled.
Even North East region, gets 10% of every budgeted plan, so that they get automatically what is desired.
Kerala is a state on the southern end of India. There are Congress leaders who will tell you that they would build a spring in a desert with Centre’s help. Some of the most powerful portfolios are held by the Kerala based leaders. Yet nothing will happen. Railway budget will come and go; the state may get one train or most of the time an empty promise that some survey will be done. It is a consumption state with negligible central investment. It depends upon everything including construction, hotel, causual, labourers from the rest of the States while, many Keralities have gone abroad in search of jobs. The nursing profession is Kerala’s brand. If Schemes are granted, the officials here do not have the expertise to implement them. There are engineering and medical colleges, at street corners but those who complete their courses have one foot outside India. The Central Government will promise the moon, and show moon’s reflection. Our state is satisfied. This state is backward, outlays are poor, and Schemes are rare. Highly literate and highly talented state has brain drain, because to draw a picture, you need a wall. There are no walls here.
Friday, February 24, 2012
Macroeconomic & Fiscal miscalculations
India is an emerging economy in the emerging economies slated to post immense growth rate by the 2150 AD as part of the BRIC. It may be jubilation or euphoria, but it is no better than PIGS (Portuguese, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) which are considered as Crisis economies. There is currently an economic view that throwing good money after bad is only going to make the matters worst. This holds well, some European economists feel about Greece which had seen no turnaround in its economy even though European Union has been helping the troubled Euro nation of Greece. Unless something miracle happens, European Union may see Greece exiting.
So also, the after shocks of the indiscriminate fuel hike in India. Kingfisher is its first victim, even though it suffers from many diseases overtly. Should lifeline be given? Banks are mum, RBI is mum, and Government is mum. It took the Herculean effort in the Government to provide impetus to Air India or Indian airlines. Kingfisher has been declared as a “Non Performing Asset”. There was all-round skepticism about the appetite for raking more risks. Banks have refused to open the liquidity until they (banks) receive some dues. But, with more and more fights grounded, the account under operation under Garnishee Law- for Income Tax dept has attached the account; the survival of Kingfisher looks very unclear.
Passenger Cars also have been affected by the petroleum product hike. This has affected the IIP output which was 5.7% in Oct 2011, 6.6% in November 2011 and 1.8% in December 2011. There has been a marked decline in the capital goods manufacturing though power sector with 8.3% growth and Services sector with 9.6%, with overall food inflation touching negative from the 16% almost six months ago, core and general inflation too, in the vicinity of 6.5%, making it clear that India is not out of the woods. The growth rate has been projected as 7%, but it is likely to be 6.8-6.9%. The foreign direct investment and foreign institutional investment has come down, and gross fixed capital formation as a proportion to GDP has come down by 4 percentage points to 29.3% from 32.9 %( 2007-8). Large scale liquidity injection by European Central Bank since Dec 2011 has lowered yields on the Government bonds. 20% of the foreign currency convertible bonds due for conversion are likely to default. Gold import has been a component which has increased the Current a/c deficit which was around 3.6% of the GDP in the first, second quarter of 2011-12. This import had to reduce merchandise imports. Primary food inflation saw acceleration of need for money wage rates, cash prices, behaviour of manufactured goods, cascading to increased subsidy bill, and higher government finances. Fiscal consolidation, which is a pillar of macroeconomic stability, budgeted at 4.6% may touch 6%. The uncertainty in the forex rates(if the exposure is unhedged), has made ECCBs which were a cheaper financing option has become costlier, making the benefit of the debt completely wiped off leaving the company on the verge of default in testing times.
Come XII Plan (2012-17). The mandarins in the North and South Block in Delhi have predicted a growth of 9% in 2012-13on the conditionality that the grim world economic scenario improves. It is Monte Carlo method!
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Coconut Industry in the 12th PLAN
I had written a blog on CDB plea to provide an outlay of Rs 2,400 Cr to the Coconut industry in the 12th Five Year Plan. I am an ardent supporter of Kerala and I had a thumb in bringing National Institute of Fashion Technology to set up a facility in Kerala, and many towns were declared as “Town of Export Excellence” due to representation of mine before the concerned at Delhi. I was largely responsible for creating a no of Textile Clusters and providing consultancy to the Government and entrepreneurs to set shop here. Coir and coconut industries have been able to get lot of central patronage, and became eligible for Schemes of the FTP. Therefore, when I received a number of calls I thought I should explain.
CDB received Rs 395 Cr in the XI Five Year Plan, 200% improvement on its outlay of Rs 145 Cr in the X Five Year Plan. The component of existing Schemes (Rs 150 Cr) and new Scheme namely Replantation and Rejuvenation of the Coconut industry (Rs 250 Cr) , 200% over and above the existing Plan outlay of X Plan was sanctioned due to the fact that the Plantation industry and the Kerala’s principal crops all got Special outlay sanctioned- Spices, Rubber, Cashew, Coir, Coconut, Tea, Coffee, marine/fisheries due to special initiatives of Hon’ble Shri Jairam Ramesh, who had extensively argued the same before the Hon’ble Prime Minister. The economy was also in full bloom, liquidity was plenty, and so making additional allocation was not a problem. If one were to look at the allocation made for different sectors, they would see that only a feeble percentage of increment was sanctioned as additional allotment, Plan after Plan at quin quinneal interval. Presently, the economic condition in India is rather weak. Global markets are fragile. India’s fiscal deficit is far beyond the target. The GDP growth is expected to crumble to 6.9 %( target 9%). Though food, general inflation has been tamed, it may bout at any juncture. Hence caution is the economic policy of expedience.
The XI Five Year Plan Schemes, if they are to be continued, then evaluation status would need to be filed. Here quantitative analysis of cost: benefit analysis would have to be progressive. However, the new major Coconut scheme was a pilot Scheme, and it was just introduced and it would take gestation before the results bear fruit. Secondly, the conversion of logs to Particle boards, setting up of a manufacturing facility is yet to materialize. A huge growth is visualized in this stream.
Coconut industry’s dominance is on Coconut Oil and Copra. It is highly saturated. High dominance is given to this segment in the Coconut sector. The Government in order to protect the farmers announces a Minimum Support Price for Coconut as well as Copra. The MSP of milling Copra was fixed at Rs 5,100 per quintal and Rs 5,350 per qtl for ball copra. De-husked Coconut has a MSP of Rs 1,400 a quintal. Presently, the market price is less than that of the MSP (Rs 4,500 -Copra). It is further expected to decline. The demand is expected to be in the region of 10.5 lakh tones (for Copra). The price of Coconut Oil (Copra) is Rs 6,700 per quintal. The total manufactured quantity of Coconut Copra oil is 4.5 lakh tones, which is equivalent to 1% of India’s total demand of edible oil in India.
Rightly recognizing the trends, the Board has decided to focus on other sub sectors of the Coconut segment along with enough weightage of Coconut, Copra, and Coconut Oil. One major step envisaged by them is to increase the productivity in coconut nuts production. Presently it is 8303 nuts per hectre meaning 48 per palm. If productivity is increased to produce 100 nuts per tree, 17,500 nuts will be available from 1 hectre land used by palms. This would definitely scale down the costs of products. There are two issues here. The number of palms per hectre should also be simultaneously increased along with increase in nut growth per tree to maximize output. Law of diminishing Returns, non availability of labour has already strained the sector. Then the supply chain. It is not direct farmer-market linkage, but farmer-middleman-market linkage. The (middle man) buys Coconut at cheap prices, and waits for the price upheaval to dispose off his stocks. This is one of the manifest reasons Coconut prices are mid-dip.
With the proportional growth of livestock and animals, the oil meal which is a by-product of Crushing of Copra which gets 65% oil, 28% oil meal, 6-7% moisture, is having an uppish demand.
Recently, Tata Global beverages signed a MoU with PepsiCo (India) to distribute their Himalayan water and Tata Glucose Plus thro’ the distribution arm of PepsiCo. The Pepsi holding Company is distributing tender Coconut water in America in 330 ml and 500 ml packs. If this JV takes interest, then tender coconut water can be produced and marketed by this MNC in India. The Unique selling Preposition can be “Sports drink from Coconut water”. The one missing link in the Coconut industry is the new entrepreneur setting shop to produce value added products. The CDB should address entrepreneurs and draw them to the Coconut industry. Other countries have an upper hand in this sphere.
Coconut shell has amazing properties. Its fibre is natural filler. Coconut filler can be used in broad range of applications to overcome the poor crack resistance of epoxy resin polymer used in aerospace, bridges, automobiles, sale boats. Epoxy is a copolymer polyepoxide thermosetting polymer formed from reaction of an epoxies resin with polyamine hardener. It gets tensile and flavoured property by using coconut shell filler particles. It is estimated that the world would require 3.03 million tones against present production of 1.46 billion tones. Its present value is around $ 150 billion. 3 M, Aditya Birla (India), Sumitomo (Japan), UPPC GmbH (Germany), and Companies in China are producing Epoxy Polymer. This would open up new opportunities for Coconut shell sellers. Handicraft is another area where the Board has given a feeble attention. It can contribute huge business opportunities to the handicraft manufacturers.
By way of conclusion, what I had stated in my earlier blog was just drawing the attention of the authorities to the huge outlay proposed which may not augur well in the current situation. Any new proposal need to be vetted by a Group of Ministries, Planning Commission after being recommended by the administrative Ministry. While the proposal to trim the allocation of the XII Plan is in the air, with the economy downcast with low growth, hopeful assessment of expectations is very low. Hence focus on holistic growth with a higher outlay may not find favour at the present juncture with the Govt of India. That was the point I was trying to make. The very low turnout of Coconut’s value in the GDP of the Country is a negative factor which will weigh against the Industry.
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