India's GDP forecast

India has been integrating its economy with the world economy. Recently, the Chief statistical officer of India dropped a bombshell when he  announced that India has emerged as the fastest growing economy of the world, in so much as its GDP growth had touched 7.6% during 2015-16 while in Q4 it has garnered 7.9%. This starling announcement made country’s leading Economists, analysts, experts, and even Reserve Bank of India sit up in astonishment.

The bulk of country’s GDP growth had soured to Rs 2.14 lakh Crores in 2015-16 while the figure during the previous fiscal was Rs 35,284 Cr. Government sources point out to the huge difference due to differences in national income under production method and expenditure method and varied interpretation of data.

Manufacturing sector is said to have grown by 8.1% at current prices. However, it is not matched by the growth in industrial production (IIP) which is stated to be around 2.4%. How could manufacturing growth be strong against weak exports which have been contracting month after month?

If private consumption grew astronomically as contended by government data, Why are most of the balance sheets of Corporate India showed little or no growth and reduced realization and low operating profits? Corporate balance sheets are stressed. Exports, a barometer of growth sulked, posting negative growth over a period of last 15 months. Adverse global trends do not augur a smooth ride for Indian exports which did not reach the desired target! Jobs have fallen, investments have been slow to come by, disinvestment far below the anticipated target, etc. Bank performance have dipped, and even profit making banks have reported losses- Bank of India posted a loss of Rs 6 K Cr, while Canara Bank recorded (-) 4 K Cr (loss) and SBI’s profit dipped by 66%. Banking Crisis, failure of multiple banks can derail an economy from its growth path. Investment rates has fallen sharply, gross fixed capital formation has plunged. State of the banking industry sector require reboot, as there is urgency in strengthening private sector banks and loan growth to industry to revive strongly.

With lower international crude oil prices holding sway, Indian economy was bound to do well. But lower the international crude oil prices, higher is the petrol/diesel domestic (Indian) prices. When Crude oil was priced $ 123/barrel internationally, petrol bunk prices for petrol was Rs 63/litre. When the international price stood at $ 50/barrel, Indian petrol prices cost Rs 64/litre. Generally, lower oil prices should translate to higher consumption. But in India, the oil prices benefit was not passed on to the consumer, hence economic growth posted negligible growth. Government levied a higher excise duty on petrol, as the duty in 2014 was Rs 9.10 per litre while, the duty collected in 2016 was Rs 21.48/litre almost 2.5 times more. Government has stopped making good the under recoveries (conversion of crude to petrol/diesel) to marketing companies.

The imports have fallen. Substitution of components and purchase of machinery to increase productivity has come down. Still how could manufacturing sector make giant strides?

There has been a record Rs 17,000 Cr drop in investment, and according to experts, the actual rate of growth may be around 4%, about half of what has been claimed. Is the growth indicated magical or utopian? Is the growth data fudged as stated by experts? How long can lies, damn lies, continue to decorate India’s GDP statistics?

Raghuram Rajan's exit will have deep impact on Indian economy

Raghuram Rajan has chosen the dignified way to exit as Governor of Reserve Bank of India, as his extension became the subject matter of fevered speculation. Government could have averted this step by taking Governor Rajan into confidence which it did not do. Rajan’s three year term ends on September 4, 2016.

The Governor has enormous credibility with international investors, and his leaving will have an impact on foreign inflows. Government ‘s knee jerk reaction stems from the fact that it has made Foreign Direct Investment in Defence and Civil Aviation 100% while Pharma it is 74%. If the past 2 years are an indication, will the inflow of Foreign investment higher than the foreign outflows will require enormous goodwill. With America in the Presidential election mood, and Brexit anxiety casts a spell in Europe, will there be an adequacy of foreign investment inflow; not to talk about Foreign Institutional Investment in our stock markets!

The reason why private investment is taking time is that there is over capacity on expectation of high growth. Everyone had borrowed and they were leveraged, hence Corporate Inc does not have the appetite to borrow more. The opportunities for income generation are increasing. But traditional jobs are depleting. We have to shift people’s expectations to this reality. Looking for jobs will not help.

Governor Rajan skillfully managed the country’s currency, inflation and foreign exchange reserves in a faltering world economic climate. His crack down on the ever greening of bank loans forced the banks to acknowledge bad loans rather than throw good money after bad. He maintained a tight balance between aspirations for growth and concerns about rising prices.

When Rajan leaves after tenure of good 3 years at the helm of the central bank, Indian economy is in a much better shape than it was when he received it. His successor has an enormous responsibility on his shoulders.

Modern Day Bhisma's words does not count- LK Advani Saga

Lal Kishan Advani was one of the greatest leaders representing BJP in Indian Politics. He was the Prime Ministerial candidate in 2004, wherein a major political upheaval caused BJP to quit; and in 2009, he was Prime Minister-in-waiting. Wait he did, but the responsibility eluded him. BJP lost both the elections. Now in 2014, when the political stars are good, chances have again made him lose his grip on the Party he had founded. He was a patriarch. Now, he is likely to be elevated to the post of Patriarch Emeritus, a title for coveted discarded former bosses! It is an irony of fate, that Advani nourished young blood. He gave leadership to many youngsters. He supported Modi, in the turbulent 2002 at the same venue 2002; after 12 years, the time has turned full circle. It was Advani who was cast aside and was eclipsed top to bottom though he sulked being absent from the meet, first time in the last many years since BJP’s formation. This brings us to the story of Rama and Hanuman. Rama was represented by Advani in the present saga and Hanuman by the political tiny tots of BJP. Hanuman was sent as Rama’s emissary to the Court of Ravana to find and spot Sita. When Hanuman saw Sita, he could have accomplished what Rama accomplished after a War that devastated the entire Sri Lankan army and loss of life and limb to many others in the monkey sena. Hanuman knew that this was his tryst with destiny to prove to Rama his unbinding loyalty. Why did he resisted carrying Sita and fly away to Rameshwaram. He could have accomplished his mission and avoided a costly War. He could have crushed Ravana and his entire army, whether he had miraculous weapons in his armory or not. But being an obedient bhakata, and knowing full well that he was only an emissary, he did not take a role that would have catapulted him to a hero and twisted the story of Ramayana. He did what he was told, and never changed the script. BJP was the life line of Advani. He was the chankya, who plotted its poll strategy. He was Rama in the BJP. How could his chela, the modern Hanuman, eclipse him? There is one stark difference. Rama avatar is over. This is the era of Kalki avatar. We are in Kaliyug. Modi is the new found Robin Hood whose Sherwood Forest is the battle field of Indian electoral politics. He is the primus interus pars of modern polity. But can he deliver? Stories of treachery abounds another Indian epic, Mahabharata. When he say Dhridarashtra, the blind King whose quote appears in the first line of Bhagavt Gita, quote: Sanjay, tell me, what my children and Pandu’s sons are doing in the battle of Kurukshetra? Panavas and Kauravas had a childhood, together under Dhridarashtra as on Pandu’s death, Dhidarashtra had ascended Pandu’s throne. Many describe this stanza to drive home King’s selfishness, as the King. was equally responsible for the well being of Panadavas and Kauravas. Is it the fault of Dhridarashtra to be selfish, when the author, Vysya who had written these lines was himself blindfolded to his character Dhridarashtra? Actors only play their part; the author of the epic was responsible for that curious acting by the blind king? In the present script, Modi represents those who are disgruntled to the present state of affairs of BJP in which Advani’s role cannot be washed away. There might be a lot of angst. But those who believe in their growth only, forget that their growth is synonymous to the growth of the organization they claim to represent. If the bell curve of BJP does not attain a position of importance to lead the Government in 2014, to what position will Modi be regaled? History alone can tell.

Rule of Law jolted in Cricketers case

Rule of Law in rude jolt-Cricketers Case at Delhi In a sensational twist to the saga of Sreesanth and 22 others facing certain sections of the Indian Penal Code before the Chief Judicial Magistrate, Delhi, MOCCA was added, which resulted in transfer of the case automatically to the Sessions. While the bail petitions of Sreesanth was to be heard by the Judicial First Class Magistrate, the case was made more forceful by applying the provisions of MOCCA passed by the Maharashtra Assembly which also was made effective in the state of Delhi from January 2002 by appropriate notification. No other state, it need to be emphasized, has made provisions of MOCCA applicable within their territorial jurisdiction. The Police officer attached to the Delhi Police made a comment that there was enough proof of evidence with them to impose sections that were there in MOCCA applicable to the accused. Just before the bail application was to be heard, without even informing the trial court in advance, the Police presumably, because two accused facing similar charges in Mumbai were let on bail, applied stringent sections of MOCCA and adding them to First Information Report already filed, to prevent Sreesanth to get bail. Obviously, it is the view of the Delhi police, if Sections under MOCCA were invoked the accused cannot be released on bail. Supreme Court in State of Maharashtra Vs Bharat Shanti Lal Shah and Others (SC 2009) struck down as unconstitutional Sec 21(5) of MOCCA stating that “The provision of denying his right to seek bail is not even in consonance with the object sought to be achieved by the Act, on the face of provisions, this is an excessive restriction”. It concurred with the High Court of Bombay judgment in the Criminal Writ petition 1738/2002 and 110/2003 filed by Bharat Shah, stating that restrictions on the power to grant bail should not be pushed too far, and it should be left to the discretion of the Court to arrive at a just conclusion based on the omissions and commissions of the crime and the evidence available before him. If the Court is satisfied that a person can be granted bail, power to grant bail rests on him”. Delhi Police officer was off the mark in his knowledge of MOCCA provisions in the light of clear SC ruling in two cases. The Delhi Police Officer further said that they had irrefutable evidence to link the accused to organized crime rackets, even though their acts fall under cheating, and criminal breach of trust, if proved beyond doubt. The statement attributed to the Police officer that let the accused prove they are innocent is full of flaw, as the SC had ruled unambiguously that in a “criminal case, the onus lies on the prosecution to prove affirmatively the guilt of the person. Further, action of one accused cannot be used as evidence against another”, as done by the Delhi Police. This is against the fundamental Rule of Law. As per MOCCA, the cricketers have abeted, facilitated, organized crime, and accumulated unaccounted wealth. MOCCA seeks to prevent to control disruptive activities. But they need evidence of nexus of the accused with the commission of crime.SC has held that “conspiracy is not a term of act. It has a definite connotation. In any criminal activity, mens rea (criminal intention) is a necessary ingredient for commission of a Crime under any Law including MOCCA. ‘Statement of objects and Reasons background of MOCCA should be looked into under the doctrine of pith and substance’ (SC Appeal 523 of 2005 dated 7 April 2005 Justices NS Hegde, B Singh, S Sinha)(Ranjitsing Brahmajeetsingh Sharma Vs State of Maharastra)(SCC 294) In AIR 1975 SC 1975), SC held that abettor should have intentionally aided in the commission of the Crime. Mere proof that the crime charged could not have been committed intrerpositively of alleged abet or enough compliance with the requirements of Sec 107 of the Indian penal Code read with sub section ‘2’ of Sec 3 of MOCCA. Criminal Appeal 2008 before SC State of Maharashtra Vs Bharat Shanti Lal Shah & Others (Bench: Altamas Kabir and Markandey Kunju) where constitutional validity of 2(d), e,f,Sec 3 and Sec 4 which was held unconstitutional vis-à-vis Art 14 and 21 of the Indian Constitution upheld by Bombay High Court was challenged. SC held that Sec 21(5) was unconstitutional- refusal for grant of bail. A statute, it is a trite, should not be interpreted in such a manner as would lead to absurdity, SC had warned. For want of a nail, a battle was lost, there is a saying. Cricketers who took money to bowl in a particular over as pre-determined by bookies during IPL matches were sought to be depicted as having league with notorious anti social elements is farfetched. Srisanth’s cricketing career is as good as over. The timing of his arrest leads to suspicion. That his arrest was made in such a hurry, spontaneously, without caring to recover all the articles which were in his room, further aggravates the suspicions. Srisanth did not have peers both in the cricketing administration and in the political high ups is self evident that he alone is made a victim of this unsavory saga. Delhi Police have a design. Time alone will prove what it is. The ever ebullient channels, vying with each other as espousing public cause, have imposed their stoic silence over the clamping of the charges by the Delhi Police on the cricket trio at Delhi.

I Go spiritual

I always cared for recognition, which was a materialistic pursuit. I wanted to attain peaks however treacherous are the mountain paths. I had always believed in a change, and a change for the better of the existing environment including my work envoironment, in whatever I did. I always believed that destiny is the creation and fruit of one’s hard labour. I had worked in various organizations in various capacities. While the 7th and 8th Plan were on, certain projects exclusively created at Karwar like Karwar port, Konkan Railway connectivity, Kadamba naval Base, Kaiga atomic plant, I had an important role as Economic Analyst, in projecting Karwar and its expected growth. I had very interesting assignments during my Confederation of Indian Industry days, where the vortex of industrialists and India’s hi-fi entrepreneurs were part and parcel of this body. I experimented plethora of activities while in Indo-American Chambers of Commerce, a bi-national Chamber. There are many Chambers and trade Associations in Chennai, and the spirit de corpse amongst the Organizatonal Secretaries was something unique; they were a fraternity with personal bondings! My tenure at Tirupur Exporters Association under a dynamic president A Sakthivel peaked my visibility. My Advisorship with Coir Board, and Coconut Development Board, took the exports of coir and Coconut to the pinnacle. These two products gained considerable visibility against 0% visibility in the third millennium. I also had assignments with pricewaterhouseCoopers, which was really interesting. I learnt what professional touch was. With good scrores written in the so called chequered career of mine, I was on cloud nine, though they meant nothing. Zero is Zero and Zero is also infinity. How it could be, you may well ask. I am no mathematician, hence cannot explain. During my different life tenures, I have always seen that ‘stupidity was always rewarded, and sincere performance was always scorned.’ Unworthy got the spotlight while the hard work of some got total neglect. When you near 60, you get into the mood of mystic, felt the great bard of Stafford Avon (in his poem Seven Stages of Man). You become silent and believe that sublime is in devotion or in listening to discourses or practice of yoga, saddhana, and yoga with mediation. But others believe in caring and giving and longing for helping others who are in search of help. There are various forms of manifestations of munificence. I was less engaged in working out ideas that could become products having economic value. That was pure materialism. My wife Indira was very serious about meditation. She believed in the doctrine of dharma, karma and vision for attainment of self realization. She had travelled the world, met saints, sages, powerful personalities. She was a regular visitor to the libraries not only in various cities of India, even in the far away United states. She read. Re-read. Gathered more and more information of the values. She was fascinated by the famous land marks of divine abode, and other mysterious temples which were steeped in history. India lived through its Masters. The propound wisdom of these Masters were transferred from the master to the discipline and then to his discipline, etc. The world or the universe was within. This inner atman can do anything, go anywhere, and do the impossible. There is nothing impossible, said Napoleon the great general of France. Yes; he was right. There have been many authours, who have penned the story of Himalayas, and the saga of many rishis and yogis who have lived for 4 to 5 centuries have been recaptured in these lively narrations. I have read many books relating to the Himalayan stories, and the contents revel that the great masters and seers seem to be in pursuit of taking the world to a nobler path, which is desirable and needed today, more than ever. My wife had an interesting meeting with Rosalind Edith Williams (1903-1996) who along with her husband D Rajgopal along with Jiddu Krishnamurthy founded the Happy Valley School, Ojai, California, USA. Also associated with this institution was Guide Ferrando, Aldous Huxley. Jiddu Krishnamurthy was a great spiritual guru, who had various experiences and has written many books which were of international repute. All these people were associated with Annie Besant of theosophical society fame, a great fighter for India’s independence. Aldous Huxley has written a book “After Many a summer (1939), and modeled the character of Virgina, which was the life story of Rosalind. My wife met with Rosalind in Ojai and was fortunate to have spent some time wit her. After my wife’s return from Ojai, she wrote a letter to Rosalind, and her reply in her own hand addressed to my wife in India shows her concern for a person who met her for an hour or so.[Letter scanned and re-produced) This told me that humility, whoever great can be the man, confers greatness on the person who imparts it sincerely. Great people have great traits, which simple people cannot copy. But their ideals are worth emulation. I respect Rosalind for her great simplicity, humility and compassion. Such people are rare.

Four temples dedicated to celebrated quartet of Ramayana

Nalambalam Pilgrimage in Karkatakam Come June 1, its equivalent in the Malayalam calendar is Edavapathi, when the rains begin to lash in Kerala with all ferocity. It also synchronizes with the opening of the Schools in Kerala. The onset of the monsoons is widely welcomed, as on the strength of the rains, Kerala’s commercial crops depend heavily. Karkidakam, the last month in the Malayalam calendar when Sun transit Cancer between July 16 and August 16). The month sees people attending temples every day, and the evenings are spent listening to various discourses and chanting of Ramayana. Kerala gets a festive and religious fervour during the month.

Nalambalam, means four temples, which are in different locations of Thrissur district in central Kerala where the shrines of Lord Rama (Triprayar), Bharatha (Koodalmanikyam at irijalikuda), Lakshmana (Moozhikulam, Ernakulam district), Shatrugana (Payammal), the celebrated quartet of the epic Ramayana. They are one of the most popular religious tours of South India. Myriads of spiritually inclined tourists from all across the Indian subcontinent and abroad sign up for these tours from Thrissur. A trip to Nalambalam is a highly sacred auspicious event during Karkidakam, a highly sacred month in the Malayalam calendar.

Nalambalam Yatra begins from the Rama temple in Triprayar and ends up at Shatrughna Temple in Payyammal. It is customary to visit the four temples in the order Rama, Bharata, Lakshmana and Shatrughna respectively. Triprayar Temple houses a 6 ft tall idol of the Lord, holding Shankha', Sudarsanachakra, Stick and Garland, in a very ferocious form facing east. He is seen in standing posture. Vedi Vazhipadu is the main offering, but that does not match with the Lord. There are many lunatic beliefs that Hanuman burnt many fire crackers on the ear of the Lord, but as Hanuman can't do any harm to Rama, that is not good to believe it. The temple is under the control of Cochin Devaswom Board, an autonomous body. Koodalmanikyam Temple houses another 6 ft tall idol of the Lord, seen in ferocious form, facing east, in standing posture holding the same things as seen at Triprayar. This is one of the rare temples where only one idol is there. The temple has a private devaswom.

Moozhikkulam is the only temple in Ernakulam District, and the only one among the four temples, which belong to the 108 Divya Desams, praised by Alwars. The temple houses another 6 ft tall idol, similar to the idol at Guruvayoor, holding Shankha, Sudarsana chakra, Mace and Lotus, in standing posture, facing east. Payammal is the smallest temple, having the smallest idol, also similar to that at Guruvayoor. This is the way to praise them: First, we have to worship Hanuman. Then worship Rama at Triprayar during his nirmalyadarsanam. Then worship Bharata at Koodalmanikyam and Lakshmana at Moozhikkulam during their Usha Poojas. Then worship Shatrughna at Payammal during his Ucha Pooja. 1. Triprayar Sreerama Temple Triprayar is in the middle of Guruvayoor – Kodungallore route. Those who want to come via Trichur should reach Cherpu and proceed went wards to reach the east nada of the temple . Here is the famous Rama temple. This is the first temple to visit as part of Nalambalam Pilgrimage. Darshan is possible from 3am – 12.30pm and 5pm to 7.30pm . Meenuttu and Vedi are important Vazipadu. Sited at a distance of 22 km from Thrissur, the Thriprayar temple consists of a group of four shrines that has been consecrated to none other than Lord Rama. The three day long Thriprayar Ekadasi celebrated during the month of Vrischikam .i.e. November to December in the Gregorian calender is one of the primary festivals that is celebrated with lots of pomp and grandeur. Prayers timings in the temple are between 4.30 am to 12.30 pm during the day and 4.30 pm to 8 pm in the evening. 2. Koodalmanikam Temple, Irinjalakuda This is a unique Vaishnava Temple and the second temple to visit. From Triprayar proceed in the Kodungallore route and divert from Edamuttam or Moonnupeedika. Irinjalakuda is about 20km away from Triprayar. Darshan is possible from 3am – 12 noon, and 5pm to 8pm. Important Vazhipatus are Thamaramala , Brinjal Nivedyam, Vedi , Gheelamp , Meeunttu. 3. Moozhikkulam Sree Lakshmanapermal Temple Moozhikkulam Temple is the third temple to visit and is dedicated to Lakshmana. This is in Ernakulam District near to famous Annamanada Mahadeva temple proceeds along Vellankallore in Irinjalakuda route to Kodungallore and reaches Mala, Annamanada and then Moozhikkulam. Darshan is possible from 4 to 12.30 and 5 to 8. 4. Payammal Temple This is the last temple to visit. Reach Vellangallore and proceed went wards 4 km to reach Aripalam. Take right turn and reach the temple . Important Vazhipadu is Sudarshanan dedication. Darshan time is as given along temples. The Holy Ramayana month of 'Karkitaka' begins on July 17th this year. The Holy book of Ramayana is one of the very old books and is one that is read widely. The month of Ramayana has a great significance in many places in India. In Kerala, the Malayalam month of Karkidakam is a month of heavy down pour and is considered as a month of scarcity. In this month, the people go for Ayurvedic treatments (sukhachikithsa) in order to rejenuate their body and mind. And equally important is the reading of Ramayana to wash out their sins. In many of the Hindu families, this tradition is followed now also. In Kerala, 'Adhyathma Ramayanam Kilippattu' written by Sri Thunjathu Ezhuthachan is more popular than the original Valmiki Ramayana.

Leave the Caged Lions alone

Free Expression does not mean Right to spread incorrect information We would be celebrating the Independence Day in August 15, 2012, having gained independence from the Bitish rule where sun never set 62 years ago. A day we need to rejoice and a day we have to introspect as to where we have moved as a free country after being free. More than 50% of the present generation might be half the age, for, they were born quarter century later to 1947. But if we take a few passive shots, as a country, we have become more corrupt, more percentage of people live on the meekly subsidy of the Government, illiteracy remaining a little lower than what it was during the British rule, and the rich having made 25% growth in their population etc. The fourth estate has become powerful, can even call a spade a spade, if not can pull down a government with its expose of one incident or event. We have Anne Hazare fighting for the Lok ayukta Bill to be passed when the log (people) of this country has become mute to what is happening for they had given themselves the Constitution but had no power to criticize the government. The judiciary has taken the powers of governance from the executive, who are supposed to govern the country, contend the government. We had a series of public loot in the form of 2 G, Commonwealth Games, Adarsh scam, Chief Ministers’ quota of land allotment, army scam, vote for money scam, MP voting scam, and recently, 2 battalions of 1,000 army men marched to Delhi in the dead of the night towards Rasina Hill, when The Army General’s plea before the Supreme Court regarding his DoB need to be adjudicated. This was a storm in a tea cup or was it a gentle wind in the soup cup? This was reported by a newspaper on its front page in font 32. The nation was taken by storm, created more frenzy than India’s win in the World Cup Cricket. When Views, Reviews, Previews and interviews, exceed the lakshmana rekha, would you call it a newspaper scoop? There is every reason to believe that we have an inept government, a Prime Minister with no power, all of which resting with the Party Presidents, and DNA (Do nothing Antony). Antony has never faced a crisis in his political career, and whenever a crisis was enforced on him, he rather ran away than bravely facing it. He has to his credit, the highest resignations as Chief Minister, Kerala, one, when he was part of the Syndicate Congress, CM, Kerala, his party decided to support Smt indira Gandhi who was a candidate in the Chickmangalore election when the State was embroiled in the famous Rajan case. As Minister of Civil Supplies of GoI, he resigned rather than face the heat. Today, he wields power, but can you narrate a single project he has brought to Kerala? None. Not even to his native place Shertalla, where Coir industry is facing grave crisis. The Defence Minister escalated the crisis in the Defence ministry when there was no crisis. We spend our time on issueless issues. 10 sturdy boys from Pakistan held the country to ransom for 72 hours (Mumbai attack). It took the might of the army, t repulse it, though some of them sacrificed their lives. Let us give our defence forces what is their due. Honour. Let us honour each one of them for the selfless sacrifice they have been doing while we have been criticizing everybody other than ourselves for the country’s growth. This is too sensitive a subject where the 4th estate needs to indulge in needless debate. Right to Information does not mean Right to spread information without solid proof.

Government dispenses

The Central Government has a dog in the manger policy for some States, while it has chewing the cud procedures for some other States. The Union of India which is a union of States, receive different types of accommodation depending upon the Political situation prevailing at the time of sharing of the largesse. For some, the Union government is philanthropical but for some others it is a miser like Scoorge in Charles Dickens play. But vivid discrimination notwithstanding, some States are more equal than others. The thundering Chief Ministers get things done for their states by resorting to Political blackmail. West Bengal’s roar will make Parliament Road comes to a halt. Top Congress party bosses feel mellowed in the company of the simple lady of West Bengal. If she dares, government sheepishly accommodates her in spite of vehement protest by the man in blue turban- Montek Singh Aluwaliah. Government never seeks Planning Commission’s suggestions to the demand of Lady who sits in Writers Building, whether there is money in the treasury or not. She is a Lion in front of the timid Ruling party. The ex boss of Tamilnadu when he tries to get up from his wheel chair, the whole Government runs to him. When the ruling party hears that the ex boss of TN is coming to Delhi, the prime minister faints. His daughter Kanimozhi threatened the government with serious consequences if India did not vote against Sri Lanka in the US submitted resolution asking for prosecuting the human rights violators during the army’s war against Sri Lanka Tamils. The Government meekly responded by saying that India will vote against Sri Lanka resolution. Our Foreign Policy, as laid down by the architect of India Pdt Jawaharlal Nehru has been the policy of non-alignment. Madam Jayalalitha turned 180 degrees when she agreed to the suggestion that the nuclear plant at Kondamkulam in Tamil Nadu had significant safeguards and the state needed badly power to run the industries. The same CM refused the sane assurance of Bharat Ratna Abdul Kalam regarding the safety of the plant and commented that she was not satisfied with the assurance. At any hour, Congress government will help and assist Omar Abdullah, time and again. . In Andhra, solution to bifurigation of the state to Andhra and Telegana has taken the state to stupor. There are states ruled by BJP, which gets support sometimes, brick bats some other times. But the opposition namely the Congress in the BJP ruled state. Depending upon the stature of their leader, will get support from the Centre. Maharashtra, with Mumbai which is the commercial capital, the government will erase every full stop to please the State. Shard Pawar, the powerful man from there, fretted and fumed when Government applied break to Cotton exports, after it had crossed the export target. It took just a day for the DGFT to over-turn its order. Similar problem exist in sugar export. Gujarat, the birth place of Gandhi, with its BJP connection is another state, which may get central support like the monsoon rains- unpredictable! But the Gujarati businessman knows how to pull the wires in the Central secretariat, and get his demand fulfilled. Even North East region, gets 10% of every budgeted plan, so that they get automatically what is desired. Kerala is a state on the southern end of India. There are Congress leaders who will tell you that they would build a spring in a desert with Centre’s help. Some of the most powerful portfolios are held by the Kerala based leaders. Yet nothing will happen. Railway budget will come and go; the state may get one train or most of the time an empty promise that some survey will be done. It is a consumption state with negligible central investment. It depends upon everything including construction, hotel, causual, labourers from the rest of the States while, many Keralities have gone abroad in search of jobs. The nursing profession is Kerala’s brand. If Schemes are granted, the officials here do not have the expertise to implement them. There are engineering and medical colleges, at street corners but those who complete their courses have one foot outside India. The Central Government will promise the moon, and show moon’s reflection. Our state is satisfied. This state is backward, outlays are poor, and Schemes are rare. Highly literate and highly talented state has brain drain, because to draw a picture, you need a wall. There are no walls here.

Macroeconomic & Fiscal miscalculations

India is an emerging economy in the emerging economies slated to post immense growth rate by the 2150 AD as part of the BRIC. It may be jubilation or euphoria, but it is no better than PIGS (Portuguese, Ireland, Greece, and Spain) which are considered as Crisis economies. There is currently an economic view that throwing good money after bad is only going to make the matters worst. This holds well, some European economists feel about Greece which had seen no turnaround in its economy even though European Union has been helping the troubled Euro nation of Greece. Unless something miracle happens, European Union may see Greece exiting. So also, the after shocks of the indiscriminate fuel hike in India. Kingfisher is its first victim, even though it suffers from many diseases overtly. Should lifeline be given? Banks are mum, RBI is mum, and Government is mum. It took the Herculean effort in the Government to provide impetus to Air India or Indian airlines. Kingfisher has been declared as a “Non Performing Asset”. There was all-round skepticism about the appetite for raking more risks. Banks have refused to open the liquidity until they (banks) receive some dues. But, with more and more fights grounded, the account under operation under Garnishee Law- for Income Tax dept has attached the account; the survival of Kingfisher looks very unclear. Passenger Cars also have been affected by the petroleum product hike. This has affected the IIP output which was 5.7% in Oct 2011, 6.6% in November 2011 and 1.8% in December 2011. There has been a marked decline in the capital goods manufacturing though power sector with 8.3% growth and Services sector with 9.6%, with overall food inflation touching negative from the 16% almost six months ago, core and general inflation too, in the vicinity of 6.5%, making it clear that India is not out of the woods. The growth rate has been projected as 7%, but it is likely to be 6.8-6.9%. The foreign direct investment and foreign institutional investment has come down, and gross fixed capital formation as a proportion to GDP has come down by 4 percentage points to 29.3% from 32.9 %( 2007-8). Large scale liquidity injection by European Central Bank since Dec 2011 has lowered yields on the Government bonds. 20% of the foreign currency convertible bonds due for conversion are likely to default. Gold import has been a component which has increased the Current a/c deficit which was around 3.6% of the GDP in the first, second quarter of 2011-12. This import had to reduce merchandise imports. Primary food inflation saw acceleration of need for money wage rates, cash prices, behaviour of manufactured goods, cascading to increased subsidy bill, and higher government finances. Fiscal consolidation, which is a pillar of macroeconomic stability, budgeted at 4.6% may touch 6%. The uncertainty in the forex rates(if the exposure is unhedged), has made ECCBs which were a cheaper financing option has become costlier, making the benefit of the debt completely wiped off leaving the company on the verge of default in testing times. Come XII Plan (2012-17). The mandarins in the North and South Block in Delhi have predicted a growth of 9% in 2012-13on the conditionality that the grim world economic scenario improves. It is Monte Carlo method!

Coconut Industry in the 12th PLAN

I had written a blog on CDB plea to provide an outlay of Rs 2,400 Cr to the Coconut industry in the 12th Five Year Plan. I am an ardent supporter of Kerala and I had a thumb in bringing National Institute of Fashion Technology to set up a facility in Kerala, and many towns were declared as “Town of Export Excellence” due to representation of mine before the concerned at Delhi. I was largely responsible for creating a no of Textile Clusters and providing consultancy to the Government and entrepreneurs to set shop here. Coir and coconut industries have been able to get lot of central patronage, and became eligible for Schemes of the FTP. Therefore, when I received a number of calls I thought I should explain. CDB received Rs 395 Cr in the XI Five Year Plan, 200% improvement on its outlay of Rs 145 Cr in the X Five Year Plan. The component of existing Schemes (Rs 150 Cr) and new Scheme namely Replantation and Rejuvenation of the Coconut industry (Rs 250 Cr) , 200% over and above the existing Plan outlay of X Plan was sanctioned due to the fact that the Plantation industry and the Kerala’s principal crops all got Special outlay sanctioned- Spices, Rubber, Cashew, Coir, Coconut, Tea, Coffee, marine/fisheries due to special initiatives of Hon’ble Shri Jairam Ramesh, who had extensively argued the same before the Hon’ble Prime Minister. The economy was also in full bloom, liquidity was plenty, and so making additional allocation was not a problem. If one were to look at the allocation made for different sectors, they would see that only a feeble percentage of increment was sanctioned as additional allotment, Plan after Plan at quin quinneal interval. Presently, the economic condition in India is rather weak. Global markets are fragile. India’s fiscal deficit is far beyond the target. The GDP growth is expected to crumble to 6.9 %( target 9%). Though food, general inflation has been tamed, it may bout at any juncture. Hence caution is the economic policy of expedience. The XI Five Year Plan Schemes, if they are to be continued, then evaluation status would need to be filed. Here quantitative analysis of cost: benefit analysis would have to be progressive. However, the new major Coconut scheme was a pilot Scheme, and it was just introduced and it would take gestation before the results bear fruit. Secondly, the conversion of logs to Particle boards, setting up of a manufacturing facility is yet to materialize. A huge growth is visualized in this stream. Coconut industry’s dominance is on Coconut Oil and Copra. It is highly saturated. High dominance is given to this segment in the Coconut sector. The Government in order to protect the farmers announces a Minimum Support Price for Coconut as well as Copra. The MSP of milling Copra was fixed at Rs 5,100 per quintal and Rs 5,350 per qtl for ball copra. De-husked Coconut has a MSP of Rs 1,400 a quintal. Presently, the market price is less than that of the MSP (Rs 4,500 -Copra). It is further expected to decline. The demand is expected to be in the region of 10.5 lakh tones (for Copra). The price of Coconut Oil (Copra) is Rs 6,700 per quintal. The total manufactured quantity of Coconut Copra oil is 4.5 lakh tones, which is equivalent to 1% of India’s total demand of edible oil in India. Rightly recognizing the trends, the Board has decided to focus on other sub sectors of the Coconut segment along with enough weightage of Coconut, Copra, and Coconut Oil. One major step envisaged by them is to increase the productivity in coconut nuts production. Presently it is 8303 nuts per hectre meaning 48 per palm. If productivity is increased to produce 100 nuts per tree, 17,500 nuts will be available from 1 hectre land used by palms. This would definitely scale down the costs of products. There are two issues here. The number of palms per hectre should also be simultaneously increased along with increase in nut growth per tree to maximize output. Law of diminishing Returns, non availability of labour has already strained the sector. Then the supply chain. It is not direct farmer-market linkage, but farmer-middleman-market linkage. The (middle man) buys Coconut at cheap prices, and waits for the price upheaval to dispose off his stocks. This is one of the manifest reasons Coconut prices are mid-dip. With the proportional growth of livestock and animals, the oil meal which is a by-product of Crushing of Copra which gets 65% oil, 28% oil meal, 6-7% moisture, is having an uppish demand. Recently, Tata Global beverages signed a MoU with PepsiCo (India) to distribute their Himalayan water and Tata Glucose Plus thro’ the distribution arm of PepsiCo. The Pepsi holding Company is distributing tender Coconut water in America in 330 ml and 500 ml packs. If this JV takes interest, then tender coconut water can be produced and marketed by this MNC in India. The Unique selling Preposition can be “Sports drink from Coconut water”. The one missing link in the Coconut industry is the new entrepreneur setting shop to produce value added products. The CDB should address entrepreneurs and draw them to the Coconut industry. Other countries have an upper hand in this sphere. Coconut shell has amazing properties. Its fibre is natural filler. Coconut filler can be used in broad range of applications to overcome the poor crack resistance of epoxy resin polymer used in aerospace, bridges, automobiles, sale boats. Epoxy is a copolymer polyepoxide thermosetting polymer formed from reaction of an epoxies resin with polyamine hardener. It gets tensile and flavoured property by using coconut shell filler particles. It is estimated that the world would require 3.03 million tones against present production of 1.46 billion tones. Its present value is around $ 150 billion. 3 M, Aditya Birla (India), Sumitomo (Japan), UPPC GmbH (Germany), and Companies in China are producing Epoxy Polymer. This would open up new opportunities for Coconut shell sellers. Handicraft is another area where the Board has given a feeble attention. It can contribute huge business opportunities to the handicraft manufacturers. By way of conclusion, what I had stated in my earlier blog was just drawing the attention of the authorities to the huge outlay proposed which may not augur well in the current situation. Any new proposal need to be vetted by a Group of Ministries, Planning Commission after being recommended by the administrative Ministry. While the proposal to trim the allocation of the XII Plan is in the air, with the economy downcast with low growth, hopeful assessment of expectations is very low. Hence focus on holistic growth with a higher outlay may not find favour at the present juncture with the Govt of India. That was the point I was trying to make. The very low turnout of Coconut’s value in the GDP of the Country is a negative factor which will weigh against the Industry.

Mullaperiyar- Why hype?

Kerala endures all injustice, because the people of Kerala always give much more than what they take. The state is not a land of plenty, but when it comes to hospitality, it ranks Number one. Mullaperiyar issue has been made psychological and sensational by our neighbouring state of Tamilnadu. For no reason. The Dam is a masonary gravity dam over Periyar River and its tributary Mullayar. The River does not take a detour of Tamilnadu, hence it does not have riparian rights. The northererly arm of this man-made water body, water is diverted through a deep cutting about a mile, and then through a tunnel 5704 ft in length and later through another cutting on the other side of the Water bed and into a natural ravine and so onto the Vaigai River. Tamilnadu uses this water for irrigation of Theni, Madurai, Sivaganga, Ramanathapuram districts and also for Power generation. When the British ruled the Madras Presidency, they exerted undue pressure for 24 years before the Maharaja of Travancore signed a Lease Indenture on 29 Oct 1886 for 999 years with the Madras Presidency the right over the waters of Mullaperiyar and its catchment basin for a paltry sum. The generous Government of Kerala signed another agreement in 1970. Kerala had the highest density of population and the areas downstream of Mullaperiyar became heavily populated because of the acute scarcity of land. Tamilnadu increased its withdrawal, increased its demand, and brought in new areas under irrigation. There have been cracks, seepages, and repeated earthquakes in the area, making people vulnerable to the fear of a catastrophe. The dam was constructed more than a century ago, and the dam that controls water is no position to hold on the water. Any catastrophe would create heavy dent on the lives of the people. There are few precautions in place to run to cover because of the dense and malarial jungle. Even though Dr Abdul Kalam, India’s former President and a honest and sincere Scientist saying that there are multiple dangers if the nuclear plant is established and all political parties in chorous demand its scrapping. What is the anticipated danger in the nuclear plant? In Japan, it was tornado that caused destruction and not the plant inter se. Why is alarm bells rung when there is no alarm. Jayalalita, Chief Minister and Vaiko, and the one man party Subramanya Swami, have been claiming that there is no seepage in the dam, and Kerala is getting hysterical only to create empathy. Will they articulate this in the form of affidavit and agree to take responsibility if any untoward happened? Kerala has no Jayalalita, nor Vaiko, nor the flamboyant Subramanya Swami. But they want good neighborly relations with Tamilnadu. They will always provide Tamilnadu, water that has been agreed. Kerala always honours agreements. The construction of the new dam suggested is in the present circumstances, precautions cannot be in-built. But if we are structuring a new dam, disaster management would be inbuilt. Kerala has no other motive other than this. This issue is not to be debated on a Political plank but in a responsible forum.

Immortal Mohammed Ibrahim- Past Cricketer

In the death of Shri T A Mohamed Ibrahim, Kerala had lost one of the outstanding cricketers who donned the cap for the Kerala Ranji Team. His Ranji debut began in the season 1967-68. A product of the St Joseph’s High School, Trivandrum, Ibrahim began his career in Cricket via the Kerala School team, proving his mettle as an indemonstrable all-rounder. He has claimed hat-trick many a time, during his school days. His highest individual score was 237 runs in 150 minutes. In the same match he claimed 10 wickets for 15 runs including a hat-trick. He was a left hander, who could bowl controlled fast bowling and introducing cutters which were his strong points as an opening bowler. He was coached by A R Bhupathy in his formative Years. He played regularly in the Shastri trophy Cricket tourney organized by the Cochin Cricket Club of which I was the President. He played a cavalier knock for his team by hitting 74 (against Mahindra & Mahindra Sports Club which had test players playing at that time) in the Parade Grounds during 1965. I have known him intimately, and his prowess for the Kerala team came at a time when Cricket had different dimension. If he were to play Cricket today, I am sure, he would have been a dominant player in the Indian Cricket team. The Kerala team of his days had poor reputation. Yet his play, and the coveted glory that brought him, will be a standing testimony of the Cricket of the 60s, when Tripunithura Cricket Club, Swantons, Cochin Cricket Club, Ernakulam Cricket Club, Cannanore Cricket Club, Trivandrum Cricket Club existed. We had to take collections to conduct the tournament. In those days, Ernakulam District Cricket Association was headed by Shri V R Krishna Iyer, then a leading advocate. His late wife, Smt Sharada Krishna Iyer was a great cricket fan and a patron to all of us. As we migrated to greener pastures, I lost touch with Kerala and its Cricketing fraternity. Mohammed Ibrahim was one of them. Mohammed Ibrahim is no more. But his contribution to Cricket, in those days when it was least popular in Kerala, remains immortal. May his soul rest in eternal peace.

Panchavadhyam,Kerala's unique orchestra

Panchavadyam, literally meaning an orchestra of five instruments, is basically a temple art form that has evolved in Kerala. Of the five instruments, four -- timila, maddalam, ilathalam and idakka -- belong to the percussion category, while the fifth one, kombu, is a wind instrument. Much like any chenda melam, panchavadyam too is characterised by a pyramid-like rhythmic structure—with a constantly increasing tempo coupled with a proportional decrease in the number of beats in cycles. However, in contrast to a chenda melam, panchavadyam uses different instruments (though ilathalam and kompu are common to both), is not related very closely to any temple ritual and, most importantly, permits a lot of personal improvisation while filling up the rhythmic beats on the timila, maddalam and idakka. Panchavadyam bases itself on the 14-beat adanta (also spelt atanta) thaalam (taal), but amusingly sticks to the pattern of the eight-beat chempata thaalam—at least until its last parts. Its pendulum beats in the first stage total 1,792, and halves itself with each stage, making it 896 in the second, 448 in the third, 224 in the fourth and 112 in the fifth. After this, panchavadyam has a relatively loose second half with as many stages, the pendulum beats of which would now scale down to 56, 28, 14, 7 and three-and-a-half. Whether panchavadyam is originally a feudal art is still a matter of debate among scholars, but its elaborate form in vogue today came into existence in the 1930s. It was primarily the brainchild of late maddalam artistes Venkichan Swami (Thiruvillwamala Venkateswara Iyer) and his disciple Madhava Warrier in association with late timila masters Annamanada Achutha Marar and Chengamanad Sekhara Kurup besides, subsequently, by the late idakka master Pattirath Sankara Marar. They together dug space for a stronger foundation (the Pathikaalam), thus making pachavadyam a five-stage (kaalam) concert with an intelligent mixture of both composed and improvised parts. Spanning about two hours, it has several phrases where each set of the instruments complement the others in a manner that is more like harmony in the Western orchestra than the concept of melody in India. Much like in Panchari and other kinds of chenda melam, panchavadyam too has its artistes lined up in two oval-shaped halves, facing each other. However, unlike any classical chenda melam, panchavadyam seemingly gains pace in the early stages itself, thereby tending to sound more casual and breezy right from its start, beginning after three lengthy, stylized blows on the conch (shankhu). A panchavadyam is anchored and led by the timila artist at the centre of his band of instrumentalists, behind who line up the ilathalam players. Opposite to them stand the maddalam players in a row, and behind them are the kompu players. Idakka players, usually totaling two, stand on both sides of the aisle separating the timila and maddalam line-up. A major panchavadyam will have artistes totaling around 60. Panchavadyam is still largely a temple art, but it has come out of its precincts to be seen performed also during non-religious occasions like cultural pagentry and according welcome to VIPs. There are several central and northern Kerala temples that have been traditionally playing host to major pachavadyam performances. Prominent festivals featuring them are Thrissur Pooram (its renowned Panchavadyam event is known as 'Madhathil Varavu'), Kaladi Panchavadyam ulsavam, , Tripunithura Sree Poornathrayeesa Aarattu, Tripunithura Thamaramkulangara Makaravilakku, Thiruvona Mahotsavam at Sree Vamanamoorthy Temple Thrikkakara , temples in places like Chottanikkara, Odakkali, Vaikom,Ambalapuzha, Perumbavur, Pazhur, Ramamangalam, Nayathodu, Chengamanad, Chennamangalam, Irinjalakuda, Thiruvillwamala, Pallassena, Pallavoor and several renowned temples in Malabar ,Central Kerala and South Kerala.

Sopana Sangeeta Nadhamo...

Kerala is a land and abode of Temples, Festivals. The festivals attached to temples have many fanfares including many plays of musical instruments which are specific to Kerala. One such musical instrument which is used when the nada (God’s abode) is closed for pooja and the opening is often with a mangalaharti. To the beating of chanda, the God receives the arti. This is a practice followed in most of the temples in Kerala. Sopanam literally means the place surrounding the sanctum-sanctorum of a Temple in Sanskrit. This strain of music is regarded as the sole Classical Music strain native to Kerala. Some unique features of this strain of music. It is a Music that proceeds slowly in ascending and descending order of its raga swaras. During ragalapana (recital of raga), the artist treats every note of a raga as its nila (base) and proceeds to the immediate successor note and returns to the starting note to proceed to the next note thus continuing always returning to the starting note. The alapana is slow and tala (beat) bound, and is set to he beats of edakka (a percussion instrument made of skin), and elathalam (small cymbals), at different speeds with various koorus (permutations) signifying different stages of its exposition. It is marked by a tremor in music, even when straight notes are used (This is true of most of the ancient systems of music.) The singer usually selects a note as Sthaeebhavam or the overriding emotion of the raga, and uses supporting swaras to create a Bhavam or emotion, and the succeeding notes that do not support it are skipped over. This usually results in either the first half or the second half becoming prominent. It uses Margitalams (a type of beats) which were in vogue before the advent of more modern desi talams (a more modern variety of beats 35 in number). More than fifty instruments can accompany Sopana Sangeetham of which the important ones are chenda (Percussion), edakka (Percussion), chengila (type of cymbals), ilathalam (type of cymbals), maddalam (Percussion), kuzhithalam(type of cymbals), thimila, mantuni, maram, kompu(wind), kuzhal(wind), villu, and shanku(wind).

Solution to the vexed problem of Lokpal Bill

A political storm is brewing over the Country, may be rightly, on the massive Corruption issue. The cancer of Corruption has permeated into ever branch of governance-Political class, bureaucracy, Judiciary.

Lack of statesmanship and absence of a political leader of stature has driven the country to the brink of people’s lack of confidence on the governance.

Let me not go cynical. All that has been happening since August 16th have been well documented and repeated, for a further repetition here.

Government constituted a drafting Committee consisting of nominees of Shri Anna Hazare. It was not truly representative in character. To set up a drafting Committee with one set of civil society members was a Himalayan blunder. A Committee of 21 persons who have knowledge, ability, made has made the drafting Committee representative in character. This was not done. So government’s new experiment to frame laws with a few people whoever they may be, has resulted in distortions. Secondly, Government ignored the political class on the whole. This was an inept handling of a situation when Government should have tried for consensus.

The present draft of the Civil Society headed by Shri Anna Hazaraji is the draft written and compiled by the Bushan father and son. They have bias, as they are fighting many cases including Public Interest Litigations. Hence the clauses introduced by them will definitely show their subjective outlook on the Law as they see it.

The arrest of Shri Anna Hazareji as ‘Preventive detention’ boomeranged on the Government. The miscalculation or wrong mathematics of equating Shri Anna Hazare with Swami Ramdas took the wind out of the sails when the public rallied around Shri Anna Hazare. This miscalculation made Government loose the battle. All agitations grow out of a strong mind set of one or two intellectuals in the movement who articulate the strategy and act as inventors of the theory of agitation and its issues. This was not rightly assessed by the Government.

Coming back to the Jan Lokpal Bill, the gamble took by Anna Hazare paid off, because people wanted to express their dissatisfaction over massive corruption and the government’s inability to tackle it by citing Coalition dharma, inability to dismiss the Government because of Bommai Case, Political vote bank, partisan support of corrupt people by the ruling masters, etc. Indian democracy has become so corrupt and criminalized that it was endangering the constitutional systems. When all was unwell in the economy, salaries and perquisites of parliamentarians were raised. Political Reform should have been ushered so that people would have felt safe and secure against the economic ills affecting the country as world economy was reeling down.

The anger of people across the Country was so instantaneous and spontaneous that when Hazareji was arrested, there was large outpouring of support which has led to the present stalemate. After all this venture and adventure, Government wants to initiate dialogue with Anna Hazare Team. But, to negotiate with a stubborn Anna Hazare who is supported by the mass of people all over the Country and abroad, would not be easy for the Government given the weakness will of the present day Government.

One Scam (2G) amounted to the Foreign Reserves that RBI had placed in American Treasury Bonds, equivalent to Rs 1, 81 lakh Cr. The magnitude of the scam is mind boggling. CWG, items were never purchased and never available physically were paid for. There are more than 100 bills pending for payment. How did the PM increase the CWG budget many many times than was intended? What was the provocation and reason for this enlargement of the budget? Was it not undemocratic? . Was it Right of discretion? Why blame Comptroller and Auditor General for doing his duty of pointing this out?

Government, did they have sincerity or common agenda when they engaged the civil society in the drafting process of the Lok Pal Bill. From day one, they were hitting out at each other like cats and dogs. The contentious issues between Government representatives on the Lokpal drafting Committee narrowed down to two- one, bringing the Prime minister under the ambit of the Lokpal Bill and secondly, bringing the judiciary under Lokpal.

India has a written Constitution. The preamble of the Constitution says, “We, the people of India, have given unto ourselves this Constitution”. The present Indian Constitution was drafted by the Indian people, and the Constitution was given by the People to the Country. So this Constitution expresses the supremacy of the People over every thing. Fundamental Rights are absolute Rights enshrined in Chapter III of the Constitution. They are absolute Rights which cannot be revoked by Government at all under exceptional circumstances narrated in Article 356. (Keshavananda Bharati Vs State of Kerala, Golaknath Case). The Supreme Court has made it clear that the Basic structure of the Constitution cannot be amended, altered. If a Hon’ble Minister believes that Fundamental Rights are not absolute Rights, then he need to go in for a Refresher Course.

Constitution has the theory of separation of Powers. There are three Chambers which are given descriptive Powers. The Judiciary namely the Supreme Court has the power of original jurisdiction, appellate jurisdiction, absorbed jurisdiction, suo moto Power to initiate a case against anybody, transfer the jurisdiction of the case, initiate contempt proceedings against it, etc. The Power of the Judiciary to adjudicate cases between Union and States, States and States, etc are infallible rights expressed in ambiguous terms. Now, the Jan Lokpal Bill prescribes that the Judiciary be brought under its ambit by legislation in Parliament. Can the Legislature, including Indian parliament and Union of States take away the power of Courts, which form part and parcel of the Theory of Separation of Powers by the legislative power conferred on Parliament by the Constitution? Parliament by enactment, gets into prohibited theory of basic structure, and any bill if passed will the struck off ultra vires by the Courts/Court. The Jan Lokpal Bill has been empowered to punish the corrupt (Prosecution) on the basis of its own investigation, but where is the provision for appeal against the finding of the Jan Lokpal Act. If a Judge is convicted by Jan Lokpal Act, does he have a redress to go to Supreme Court. No. This is fundamentally against the ‘Rule of Law’ dictum and Parliament has no power to power of Punishment of anybody without his right to appeal to the Supreme Court which will decide the bonafide or malafide of the Lokpal Punishment. Judiciary has a right to accept an appeal under the Indian Constitution against any punishment awarded, any decision made by anybody including the President of India, and this Right of Appeal, cannot be taken away by the legislature by moving a Bill when passed becomes an Act.

Second, the inclusion of the Prime Minister in the Bill. He is the executive Head of the State. The Courts have decided in a Judgement (Supreme Court), that there shall always be a Council of Ministers to advice the President. President can go by the advice rendered by the Council of Ministers headed by the Prime Minister. The only condition that is imposed by the Constitution is that he shall command the majority of the House. Theory of convenience does not make a Law defective which has been enacted under the advice of a Prime Minister who is adjudged guilty of election misconduct(adduced Supreme Court in Indira Gandhi Vs Raj Narain)(Justice V R Krishna Iyer who gave the judgement and Mr Shanti Bushan who argued for Raj Narayanan is one of the authors of the Jan lokpal Bill are alive and can be contacted) There is no provision in the Constitution which makes the Prime Minister holding office to be punished until the end of his term; and he enjoys immunity

Moderates and Radicals in the Civil Society are right in demanding a tough Lokpal Bill. Government need to lend its ears to the voice of the People. Government, has one pretext or the other postponed introducing the Bill in Parliament and it can flaunt no excuse to delay its introduction and promise a time bound action plan to pass the Bill and make it an enactment.

A stubborn Government which is not willing to listen to the People and claim sovereignty under the Constitution is doing a great harm to democracy. Any willful undermining of the People of this Country will not bear well for the future of the Nation. Government should come to agreement with Shri Anna Hazare and his team, and make an enabling environment for the smooth passage of the Lokpal Bill.

Agriculture growth a flop because of Planning?

India of 2010 is not the India of 1947.

In India, which has a population of over 1.2 billion today, does it have sufficient grannery to feed the mouths? Has our Below Poverty Line estimate suffices the requirement of food for the downtrodden. The much proclaimed Food Guarantee Bill, will it create a harvest of mouthful for these have-nots? India is looking forward to a thrillion economy; in these, how much these dastard and laggard people, earn to lead a hand-to-mouth livelihood. Has Malthusian theory come true in India?

When the First Five Year Plan gave supremacy of Agriculture, and the Green Revolution that followed, today’s plan (XI Five Year Plan) has hopes of achieving 4% growth even though the Plan delivered a flat 0.20% during the mid-term analysis of the XI Plan. The Plan, gives scant outlay to agriculture, does not evolve Schemes to better productivity in agri-based products, and in the least pretexts, and look as an instant solution to Imports. It even imported Public Loan 480 from America, the rice not fit enough even for rats! The Rice, and wheat stored in the Food Corporation of India mainly meant for distribution to the BPL families, is fodder for rats. Food Security Bill with Crores of Rupees of public money can be advantageous only if the food reached the poor, downtrodden. In India, for agriculture subsidy, kerosene oil subsidy (for lighting, cooking), fertiliserz, etc the middle-men knocked off a chunk of money. The Plan architect Montek Singh Aluwaliah, and the agriculture expert Dr Swaminathan are polls apart in perceiving what is best for agriculture. Our Economists theorize but often theory in the alter of reality never meet; we have massive outlay for Agriculture, that is funds spent in the name of agriculture. Hydro electric projects drowned the fertile lands, and doused the agricultural yield. Conversion of agricultural land for development, a mantra of the Globalization concept, has devastated agricultural development and growth. In Kerala, where Coconut was a plantation has become a home stud crop thanks to Kerala Land Reforms.
First area of concern is Agricultural Credit. Credit flow has risen sharply, Dr B K Chaturvedi, Dy Governor will explain eloquently. The Credit was channelised through RRBs, commercial Banks in rural areas. Commercial banks gave loans to SIDBI and other institutions that supported agriculture. Agricultural loans were characterized as priority sector loans. In the last decade or so, loans were given to Corporates, tractor manufacturers, fertilizer companies, advances worth many Crores, but they were shown as priority sector advances to agriculture. A disturbing future of the agriculture Credit is astronamal growth of agricultural finance that is urban in nature. The share of agricultural Credit supplied by urban and metropolitan bank branches in India increased from 16.3% to 30.7%. . One third of the agricultural Credit was given by metropolitan and urban banks while the share of the rural, semi-urban, RRB got reduced to less than 50%. One question is pertinent- Corporate/agricultural firms get Credit over Rs 1 cr in aggregate per borrower, but shown in Bank books as agriculture Credit (2007 onwards). Is it not an institutional make-up in the loan portfolio to show that Credit for agricultural is growing. Fertilizer subsidy, one would like to ask the question. How much have fertilizer companies grown their declared profits, and what catalytic role they played in improving agricultural productivity? In the state of Maharashtra alone, rural branches provided 25.7% credit towards agriculture while metropolitan bank branches gave a credit for agricultural sector @ 42.6% of the total agricultural credit in Maharashtra in 2008. The actual farmer in the villages, whose financial needs are sparse, would benefit the least from the present Agricultural Credit Policy which are pocked by Corporate, partnership firms having as allied enterprise, agriculture, etc. Reliable data is available to show that what is termed as agriculture Credit may have little to do with agriculture! Shocking!

The Second area of which government is least concerned is the irrigational source. Hon’ble Minister of Agriculture, Dy Chairman of Planning Commission will blame the rains for failure in Rabi crops or poor show of kharif crops. Poor monsoon, sluggish agriculture growth. No agriculturalist is concerned about average rainfall data but he looks for daily rainfall during the agricultural season for his survival. The Planners presuppose that the fluctuation of monsoon on a year-on-year basis is the problem of agricultural diminishing returns. It is not the total rainfall or levels in reservoirs that matter to majority. It is the rain on time. Dry crops might not require lot of Water or expensive irrigation facilities but timely rain. Drought related measures to temporarily assist may be useful but strategic and long term measures need to be taken. Here, our planners have failed lock, stock, and barrel. Irrigation infrastructure is deteriorating due to poor maintenance of irrigation systems. The overuse of Water is being covered by over pumping aquifers, but as they are falling by foot of ground water yield, this is limited resource. It is unscientific approach of the Planning Commission for the improper use of water, irrigation planning.

We suggest some steps: a. Agriculture, adaptation measures in rural sector should receive major institutional/financial support for evolving policies for implementation of specific programmes in the short- to- long term. (b) Measures to manage water resources on an annual cycle basis and it should be stored and distributed; some times long spell of rainfall above the normal, some times successive draught hamper the storage of water policy. The water storage level has to be decentralized to a sub basin level. Storing water on surface and underground in order to build storages for later years need to be planned. (c) Focusing on dry land agriculture and soil moisture. 75 million hectares are under food grain production in the dry land mode (d) Policy interventions: lack of saving the water or improving water productivity is actually leading to wastage. But not one rupee is in the XI Plan is allotted; (ii) incentives to use chemical fertilizers may actually induce soil degradation and put farmers of dry land farming in disadvantage(iii) Poor farmers, rural farmers do not require Rs 1 cr capital loan; the metropolitan banks need not support agriculture. Let it to be supported by NABARD (by forming micro finance companies run by honest NGOs), RRB, and Rural Banks. Stop writing off of loans, stop free power, and re-look at the clients who have agricultural loans.

Let Planning Commission answer. Let RBI do some introspection in respect of Credits to agricultural farmers? Let the Agriculture Minister look at the agriculture in its total prespective. Let the Controller and Audit General, look at Crores of Rupees of money not getting into the Agricultural arena? Let the opposition ask pertinent questions and do some honest homework. Let our newspapers and electronic media look at the agricultural issue in germane and file a faithful and accurate report. All these institutions are sleeping. Only when rats enter the FCI godowns and eat wheat, the matter comes to national attention?

Is infrastructure choaked with traffic?

Infrastructure capacity over-stretched in India?

India’s infrastructure, meaning Ports, Roads, airports, and railways, are they sufficient to meet the burgeoning demand of the economic growth of the Country which is expected to emerge as one of the largest economies of the World in a few year’s time?

Is India’s growth commensurate with the growth in automobile, bus, motor vehicle, two wheelers, three wheelers, four wheelers, six wheelers, and giant trucks that move Containers, passenger growth in trains, aero planes, and Container traffic through ports?

Has the Planning Commission estimated the normal growth and superfluous growth, and arrived at the forecasts that would accurately predict the demand: Supply? Year-on-Year, the Finance Ministers have worried about raising expenditure, bridging the gap, collecting taxes, and focusing on bringing down the fiscal deficit, and allotting a chunk of money for populist schemes with the Vote banks in view. Is there any sincerity in their spending for the downtrodden? Is it aimed at making their standard of living grow? With all the spending, the have-nots increase in geometrical progression. Why? Faint and half hearted attempts to give an impression that the Government looks at an egalitarian Society, when Laws are framed and passed to assist the rich grow to figure in the Forbes List!

You cannot plan growth of rural areas by experimenting with examples. Gross root economics is not what is visualized in the theories of master economists. Even Hayward and London School economists failed to come up with an alternate strategy when the world economy led by America and Europe fretted and fumed?

The Central Government can wash off its hands saying that Road Transport is a state subject. That is why, when they raise the price of petrol or diesel, they tell states to reduce the Commercial/Sales Tax. But it is a fact that the vehicle population, both existing and new, is out of proportion to the available infrastructure. India hardly spends 4% of the GDP when China allocates 9% of the GDP for infrastructure growth. Infrastructure capacity is wholly inadequate rather inconsistent. The supply has not picked momentum against demand. Sector has not achieved the growth commensurate with its potential. The Road usage should have been restricted to 70% of its capacity. In India, the Road capacity is stretched beyond 100%. Port capacities are extremely stretched which raise inefficiencies as the utilization has breached 100%. The traffic is growing at a Compounded Annual Growth rate of 20%, while new capacities created are sizably low. Strong domestic consumption and favourable demographies in terms of young working population in India has resulted in heavy growth of vehicles. To cite an example, the State Bank of India, Kerala Circle, (the smallest circle of the SBI in India) gave auto loans to the extent of Rs 354 Cr in 2009-10 against Rs 34 Cr in 2008-9. What is the percentage of increase? Can the roads in Kerala, limited as they are, accept this additional load?

Just to give comparative figures, the automobile population (including the two wheeler segment) in India during 1990-91 was 22 lakh against 8.59 Cr in 2008-9.

According to statistics provided by the Economic Survey (2009-10), 11,037 Kms of High way has been completed. The Survey says that 1, 45,000 Kms of rural roadways at a cost of Rs 37,000 Cr has been laid upto 2008-9. This year’s budget for the NHAI is Rs 6,972.47 by Cess Funds collected from petrol & diesel users. The Government concedes that it underwrites under-recoveries to the extent of Rs 20,000 Cr. The Cess collected through compulsory taxation is 30% of the under-recoveries. Government should explain that when such is the case, how they can say mathematically the oil Companies are in the red, even after an upward increase every three months. There is something wrong somewhere, taking into account IOC profit of Rs 10,000 Cr in 2008-9. This is a mathematical puzzle more complicated than Satyam. If we look at the budget of NHAI, Rs 6,942.47 Cr is collected through Cess, Rs 1515 Cr is ploughed by way of External assistance (in the form of grant & loan) Rs 379 Cr + Rs 1096.26 Cr borrowings, while the actual Government’s budgetary support is only Rs 159 Cr. Mr Kamalnath is right that when the planning commission coughs up just Rs 159 Cr through budgetary support while the Ministry’s fixture is to lay 20 Kms of highway totaling 7,000 Kms of national Highway per annum. That is to say Government spends Rs 2, 27,142.85 to build 1 km of National Highway.

Private Sector invested 19% of the total plan outlay as participation in the Highway Development Programme, while it has grown to 30% in the XI Plan. Only in the building of Roads, PPP has risen from 5% to 36%.

Term funding, both equity and debt, by Banks, is impossible for the simple reason that the gap in long term debt financing is largely due to asset: liability mismatch facing the Banking industry. Long term equity capacity is also difficult to come by. Permitting pension funds and insurance cos to invest in long term stabilized constructions like roads, directly and indirectly, would be cost effective. Indirect investment in infrastructure funds or creation of listed perpetual funds holding infrastructure assets where investors could invest with an annuity philosophy may be explored. Foreign Exchange Reserves may be deployed for asset creation at little costs but with high returns. If Planning Commission goes on singing in chorus as to the whereabouts of the funds, even though the deployment is in unproductive and unwanted sectors, the infrastructure development will halt the country’s progress.

Improbable saga of piling cases in Courts?

The cases pending adjudication in the trial Courts, High Courts and Supreme Courts are over 3 Cr, according to authentic Government sources. . But Chief Justice disputed the figure of mounting arrears and status of all cases that is pending administration of Justice. Justice S H Kapadia, the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court addressing an all-India Seminar on Judicial reforms held at New Delhi recently.

The Chief Justice, like an experienced Economist explained that a Case filed today becomes a pending case of tomorrow. But, is that an arrear? CJ queried the audience in the immediate presence of Hon’ble’ President of India Smt Prathiba Patil, and other distinguished legal luminaries. He went on to report that 60% of the Cases pending in trial Courts were less than a year old. A realistic look at the arrears of Cases excluding cases which are a year old, the Chief Justice remarked, were around 1 Cr cases. He readily conceded that 1 cr cases were not small figures, and hence felt that a three track mechanism would help the Court to dispose off these Cases faster.

Track- I would comprise sticky cases involving complex questions of Law and would take time for adjudication; Track-II would include’ subversive’ cases where one of the litigants try to unduly prolong the case. Track-III cases are those which are delayed due to omissions and commissions of delay in serving summons and notices. He felt that judicial reforms should percolate to the Bar as well, if it has to be meaningful. He also invited senior advocates to contribute their wisdom towards expedition of complex cases.

The President, in her speech recounted the problems of the litigants in getting delayed justice. The justice delivery system has been afflicted by explosion of litigation. While she agreed with the Chief justice that we have to draw a line between arrears and pendency of Cases, even though the pending cases has been put at 3 cr which may include cases filed during the last one year.

She reminded the audience that while the litigant has one life, litigation transcended generations. She wanted Court procedures to be simplified. Frequent demands for adjournments, filing of multiple suits and similar tactics should be avoided to increase judicial productivity. Timely pronouncements of judgments and execution of decrees would go a long way to provide Justice without delay.

The major piling up of the Cases are the result of Government filing appeal against each and every judgment made by a lower Court without examining the merits of the Case. When a case is referred to the Law Ministry, the so called Under Secretary, finds it convenient to say that a grave lawful point has to be clarified, hence suggests filing an appeal. If due to any reason, he writes against appeal, there is a distinct possibility that the CAG or some other agency writing a note against the grave loss that the Government underwent because of non application of rational thinking. In many Cases, the Supreme Court had frowned upon the Government for filing appeals against judgments when there was not even 1% merit in the Case. The Government can indulge in such vexatious luxury as money is no constraint. So judicial reform should include Government on flimsy texts approaching the Court of Law for remedy when through arbitration, it can solve the case without indulging in wasteful expenditure This will curtail wastage of Court’s precious time. Reforms should begin at the Government’s cupboard.

Paradox of urban growth -imperfect Planning?

The paradox of urban growth is creating Crisis in Cities. We have to view the problems in India in the global context, and have to arrive at short and medium term solutions based on the experiments and experiences of other countries.

While we should examine the global problem of urban transportation and the resultant consequences, and see as to how we can discover our own ways and means to cope up with compulsions. Developing nations where cities have sprung rather suddenly against planned cities in developed countries, have to make frantic effort to re-schedule the gaps in planning for organized growth.

The Government of India conceived quadrangular National Highways, with the corridors from east to west (Konkan coast to Coromandal Coast), and North to South (Kashmir to Kanyakumari). Ministry of Surface Transport, has identified the National Highways for relaying and in the XI Five Year Plans, 20 Kms of National Highways was proposed for construction which eventually would create 7000 Kms of National Highway every year. The standard requirement of right of way (RoW) for National Highway (NH) development projects have been proposed as 45 meters. In the metro Kochi, there is a Broadway, which was once upon a time the broadest way in Ernakulam (Kochi). But today, only two line traffic with over- stretched driving on the pedestrian layouts would enable two cars in both directions to drive along the Broadway. The 70 feet Road which came later was viewed as one of the biggest road lanes in Ernakulam, Kochi. Today, when 8 line traffic is the order of the day in most developed cities, this pales into insignificance in comparison. There has been resistance from merchants in Kerala on widening of the present National High which hardly can manage two lanes, one for to and another for fro. In no other state, the National Highways are so narrow, that the traffic has to snarl at important junctions to the towns. The State PWD had asked NHAI to reduce the requirement of right of way to 30 meters from the proposed 45 meters. The NHAI has cancelled the four laning of the NH 47 stretch from Cherthala to Kazhakuttam. The busy 200 Km NH 47 was to be converted into four lanes in two stretches, the first stretch from Cherthala to Ochaira and the Second from Oachira to Kazhakuttam at a cost of Rs 4,700 Cr. The State Government had contended that a width of 45 meters was too heavy a demand in a densely populated state like Kerala (population density of 819 per Sq Kms). But the load on a 30 metre wide road cannot at the first place have a four lane traffic space, and secondly, the capacity of roads to carry traffic has to be in tune with the standards laid down. Each Road has capacity, and if the capacity is exceeded, it would cause wear and tear. The specific problem of Kerala has been unplanned growth of cities in Kerala, insufficient lung space for laying of wide roads, and the traffic not proportional to the weight that Roads can carry. A 12 tonne lorry should normally carry a load of around 11 tonnes. But it is often seen that the lorry carries weight to the extent of 15 tonnes. This affects the spring plates, the tyre made of natural rubber+synthetic rubber, whose life comes down tremendously, and has impact on the life of Roads (Highways). Haywire in planning, political clout, and unplanned cities do not allow smoothening of urban transport. Horse drawn carriage, sophisticated car or mass transit system would ease congestion, regulate orderly transport, removing impediments to mobility, will make a mega city an asset rather than a liability. Fast growing vehicle population, density of high flow of traffic in a particular area, scarcity of space, deteriorating environment and the problems of encroachments have to be tackled politically, if the cities, mega cities, metropolitan cities have to grow.

The status of our road infrastructure either clogged with too many vehicles finding their way through haphazard parking, or dug up for reason few would be aware of. When a vehicle sporting red flash right overtakes the cars that are in the queue crawling with impatience. Infrastructure is more than a sea wall or a software park. It does not make any difference even when you are inside your house, by ensuring predictability in the supply of essential services such as power and water. Infrastructure comes under stress and at times, breaks down in times of crisis.

A system’s approach to traffic planning and management is absolutely necessary. While developing a traffic system management, the key should be identification of the problem areas and focus on sub area activities in tune with the nature and composition of the area. Depending upon the type of traffic-pedestrian, MRTS, taxi, auto, cars, buses, bicycles, and the system should be designed. The hawkers on the edges of the roads or pavements must be properly rehabilitated at permanent areas ear-marked for them, and given licenses to run their business from interference from the law enforcement agencies, and pedestrians should have enough pathways for them to walk without spilling over to the Road, etc. Bus bays must be constructed so that parking of buses at undesignated stops which obstruct traffic, have to be designed. Lane reversal and flexibility mechanism, linked to flow of traffic, need to be tried. When the peak hour flow of traffic is into the City or the business district, the meridian could be adjusted to open three lanes, leaving just one for the opposite direction. In the evening, this can be reversed.

There has been a big cry about wanting Metro to take care of Kochi's traffic woes. Whether it is through Public spending, or PPP model, such a metro is not possible in Kochi. When planning the satellite towns like Ambalamedu, Chottanikkara, Edappaly, Kalamassery, if the Kochi Corporation or for that matter GCDA could have planned arterial sataellite towns in a planned way, leaving the approaches so that transportation could have been possible. as it is, we have narrow roads, less width National High ways, unusaable State High ways, panchayat roads, etc are in pitiable condition. When there is loud pandamonium for stretching the NH to 45 meters, how could you go for metro. Where are the artiel roads or points?

We need to copy the developed system that is prevalent in Singapore. Road discipline, reducing the number of vehicles plying on the road at peak times, pooling of cars, transport systems, popularizing cycles like in China, would reduce the over dependence of vehicles, reducing pollution, high use of petrol/diesel, extended cost, wear and tear of roads. Urban planning need to be methodological, economic and scientific.

The Big Fat family connection

TVS Group of Companies indulge in making Car spare parts which include Original Equipment manufacture as well as replacement parts and is worth several billions. The nestling Padi Township is the home of TVS Companies and the distribution of spare parts is through Sundaram Motors, Madras Auto Service, and their dedicated distributor net-work. . They ran the TVS Bus service in Madurai, and still do transporting of goods through TVS Motors. Their financial arm is Sundaram Finance Co. They also manufacture tyre through TVS Srichakra

The suave and handsome Venu Srinivasan, who is the CMD of Sundaram Clayton Ltd, and the first Indian auto spare parts company to imbibe the Japanese quality systems in India, has been visible as an icon to the entire fraternity of industrialists when he was the President of Confederation of Indian Industry. The TVS group has patronized CII, as all their companies are members and occupy distinguished posts in the CII hierarchy.

Shri Venu Srinivasan is married to Mallika Sivasailam, grand daughter of late Shri S Anantha Krishnan, who is a pioneer having established the Amalgamations Group. Mallika was the Past President of Madras Chamber of Commerce & Industry, and is in command of Rs 6,500 Cr TAFE.

Infosys is the new face of India. Its founding heralded the dawn of Indian software industry. Its scale to fame was as unprecedented as India becoming Cricket World Chamopion in 1983. From a modest beginning, it began to scale new heights. This Company made Bangalore the Silicon Valley of India. Its founder Shri N R Narayana Murthy was a man of the soil and simple in habits and outlook. But he was a giant in his own right. His wife Sudha Murthy was known for her munificence.

What happens when these two giant families come together through their kith and kin? Rohan Murthy, 28 year old son of Shri Naryana Murthy proposed to 26 year old Lakshmi Venu, daughter of Venu Srinivasan. They say marriages are made in heaven but the decision to marry was taken in America. Rohan proposed and Lakshmi nodded. Both Venu and Narayanamurthy became Sambadithis (a Tamil term for in-laws).

Automobile industry tycoon’s worthy scion marries the prince of the software industry. The automobile tycoon and the software czar are bonded together by marriage.

May providence shower his blessings to the would- be couple.