Distortions in the re-written South Indian History

The Kingdoms of South India do not get wide coverage in the Ancient Indian History, possibly because the Kings or potentates have not left any record of their reign or inscriptions. Even though Tamil was one of the oldest classical languages of India from the unknown date in history,the historical sagas carried by the authors of famous texts are not considered authentic. However, Kerala is as old as History. The Ramayana and Mahabharata, there are references to places in Kerala. Kerala princes and warriors are said to have partaken in the ‘Kurushekhtra War’. Vamana, one of the incarnations of Vishnu is said to have exiled the then emperor Maha Bali to pathala (Bhagavatham). Parasurama, the subsequent Avatara of Vishnu is said to have reclaimed Kerala from the Sea throwing his axe from the Oom Gokarna sea coast. All these testify that there has been Cheranad, along with Cholas and Pndyan Kingdoms in South India.
Perumchoth Udayan Cheralatan was the first of the Chera Kings about whom there is a scanty sketch in the Tamil literature. He is said to be a great warrior who partook in the kurukshetra War. He was succeded by Palyanai Selkeh Kuttavan who ruled from ‘Thiruvanchikulam on the broad Periyar, near the sounding ocean’. Kalankaikkanni Narmudic Cheral succeded Selkh Kuttavan. Cholas had by that time annexed some of the parts of the Chera Kingdom. Karikola Chola defeated the combined forces of Pandya and Chera forces in the famous battle of Venni. His successors were weak, and they were subdued by Cheran Senkuttavan. The great poets of the Sangam literature have ascribed many victories and he was credited with subjugating many victories. He won a great naval war (Pathittipattu 45, 46, 48 Agam 212), and got the title ‘Kadal Pirakottiya’. Muziris, which suffered from the depredations of buccaneers, was made a safe Port of Call.
Muziris (Kodungalloor or CRAGANORE) was reputed to be the ancient world's greatest trading centre in the East for such highly prized possessions as Pepper, Cinnamon, Cardamom, Ginger and other Spices. Pliny the elder describes Muziris as primum emporium Indiae. The Port was popular to the author of the Periplus of the Erythrean Sea who described it as being situated on River Pseudostomus (Greek for false mouth- a precise Malayalam translation of Periyar alimukom) A second century Papyrus from Egypt concerning the transshipment of goods originating in Muziris from the Red Sea to Alexandria attests the continued importance of the Port in the Indian Ocean after Pilany and Periplus. Pliny, the younger is said to have lamented the fact that trade with Muziris was draining the treasury of Rome. The trade flourished by ships riding on the monsoon winds from Africa and back to Arabia, from where the overland caravan took the prized items to the markets along the Mediterranean Ports. Kerala was known as fabled land of Spices and black Gold. It was during this time Europe was busy in exploration and Voyages to unknown lands. Route to India was a dream of most of the voyager. Many attempts were made, but most could reach only up to "Cape of Good hope" in Africa.
Historians like Dr Tomber of the British Museum attest that the flow of trade between Rome and Kerala lasted between the 1st century BC and 1st Century AD. However, there was growing evidence, according to her, that this trade continued much longer into the 6th and early 7th century AD, although not continually.
So well known was this Port town, a placed loved by the navigators, that the direct disciple of Jesus Christ, St Thomas came to Muziris, and the Christian religion took their roots here. The testimony to this is the St Marthoma Church (built in 52 AD). There has been a congregation of Buddhists to this place as well. Huan Tsang, Chinese traveler who has recounted the history of his travel in India, describes Muziris as a place where there were many Buddhists. The 24th Perumal Raja Varman (294-314 AD), the thirteeth Perumal Chandra Varman II (515-540 AD) became staunch Buddhists. In Kerala upto 550 AD Buddhism was highly prevalent here. Well known geographer Ptolemy (AD 95) had a map where Muziris was marked. Sri Kurumba Bhagavati temple of Kodungallur is said to have been built by Cheran Senkuttavan. Kodungalluramma and the fable relating to her have been depicted in Silapathikaram by Elangovan, who is said to be the brother of Cheran Senkuttavan (2 nd centuries AD Tamil classic). The Kannaki of Chilapathikaram is said to have burned the city of Madurai when the Pandyan King unknowingly killed her husband Kovalan, accusing him of having robbed the precious pearl studded bracelet. According to lore, Kannaki is Kodungalluramma. However, under Senkuttavan, there was peaceful co-existence between the conglomerations of all religious faiths in the remote period of History.
I would like to pause for a second, and look at the record achievements of South Indian rulers. However, when the entire Indian History was re-constrcuted by Western Scholars, they gave scant respect for Chola, Chera and Pandya Kingdoms. Pulakasi II stopped the exploits of Harsha Vardhan. Raja Raja Chola and Rajemdra were great monarchs. In the annals of the early centuries of Christian era, South Indian Ports excelled. Priceless treasures were brought by Phoenicians, Arabs, and Romans. The exploits of south Indian Kings lay concealed under the dust of centuries until comparatively recent times (!) Historians have often failed to appreciate the work and recognize the greatness of warriors and Kings of the South (Dravidians). The subjugation of the south by the invaders from the north is with them a normal occurrence, a fascinating theme, and a forgone conclusion. It was possible for people of South India to spread throughout India, colonize islands like Java, Bali and push commercial enterprise in the countries of the West, the story of their conquest of North India need not be branded as a figment of poetic fancy or a mere manifestation of parochial patriotism. If the expedition of Samudra Gupta could give the historic background to Kalidasa in describing the military triumphs of Raghu, the exploits by Chera Kings recorded in Pathithupattu and other Sangam Works of contemporary poets may also be legitimately regarded as reliable and true(Travancore Manual, Chap XIII,p 21). It may, perhaps, be contended that the desire for recognition and regard, might have induced the composers to burn their incense at the feet of the Kings and potentates and persuaded them to improvise fictions to make their panegyrics acceptable to their patrons. That is the fragility of poets of all ages and all Countries. But no historian has refused on that ground to indent for his facts on Bana’s Harscharita, Bilhana’s ‘Vikramankaradevacharitra’ or Kalhana’s Rajatharangani. V A Smith has frankly acknowledged that for the period of Indian History from 600 to 326 BC, dependence must be placed almost wholly upon tradition communicated through literary works. The remarks are no doubt applicable to the History of Sangam period in South Indian History.
Ancient Tamil works are invaluable pieces of information for reconstruction of history of those times. Silapathikaram is a notable work which gives inkling of the times. The Pathittipattu describes the exploits and valours of individual Chera Kings. The reputation of the Sangam works depended upon the stamp of approval placed on them by the great Madurai Academy composed by the most learned men of that time. The ‘Akkappural’ and ‘Pura Nanuru’ are also compositions of great value. But the accounts furnished by the Sangam works are often taken at a discount. So great is the inferiority that even Shri P T Srinivasa Iyer, who has done a lot of study in the South Indian History, would fain dismiss the expedition of Sen Kuttavan into the Gangetic Valley as a fable invented by ‘a Tamil poet ignorant of the geography of India’. In the light of the same arguments, it is feasible for a fantastic historian to state the great pilgrimage of Sri Sankara (Adi Sankara) from the remote Kaladi to the North as a fable invented by a fanciful poet of the South! If the Indo-Aryans from their Artic home and the Greeks under Alexander the Great knew geography enough to invade India through the difficult passes in the north-west, it may be reasonably presumed that a South Indian King should also be able to discover the route which led to the northern Regions.
Sangam Works quote the beautiful ships of Yevanas brought gold in great quantity to the Court of Muziris and went back laden with pepper. Spinning and weaving were common, carpentry, working in hides and skins were common. The land grew spices, especially pepper which was much sought out in the Western World. It abounded in Coconuts, sandlewood, akil and sugar cane. Elephants gave ivory, its mines yielded precious stones, and its seas produced pearls.
It was the consecration of a Bhagavati Temple at Kodungallur paved the way for Bhagavati workship in Kerala.
The Cheraman Jamal masjid was constructed in 629 AD and is the first Muslim mosque constructed in India. It had unique and queer architecture and a century year old lamp which show the close amenity between the various religions at Kodungallur. Kodungallur still enjoys religious amenity.
Today, Muziris stands in isolation, with big gated houses, with their occupants away in America, Emirates and other far countries. Kodungallur is a native place of the famous P Bhaskar who gave many songs including “Nallikerathindanattil annikku nadi edigandi mannundu” (In the land of Coconut, I have a small land), Prof M N Vijayan, Kamal, Cinema Director, Kodungallur Kunju Kuttan thampuran, an erudite Sanskrit Scholar, Bahadhur, late cine artist, etc.
Bibliography:

# Pliny’s Natural History
# Travancore Manual
# History of the Tamils from the earliest times to 600 AD- P T
Srinivasa Iyengar
# History of Kerala – A Sridhara Menon
# Trade in early India (Oxford University Press)
# Cochin Saga- Sir Robert Bristow
# History of Kerala- Wikipedia
# Vestige of the Grand Past & Saga of Cochin (A V Ramanathan)
# Viswa Vijnana Kosh (Ed: P T Bhaskara Panikker)
# Annual Reports of Coir Board
#Coir Export Statistical Output (Coir Board)(2007)
#Coconut Export Manual (CDB, Govt of India, 2010]

India's Agricultural Policy

Even after 62 years of independence, we have not built and strengthened the institutions that are required to ensure that the fruits of democracy are enjoyed by our denizens. We are still in the planning and building phase. This requires capable people with scruples and the moral authority to guide these institutions into a beacon of hope for the masses. We need the right people in the right places during this building phase. But unfortunately we have all wrong people at the helm of affairs!
Look at our Planning. Even after 50 years of Planning, we have never achieved anything credible or worthwhile. We have deficit food production; we import edible oil, Crude oil, petroleum products, sugar, cement, steel, Ferrous and non ferrous metals, Capital goods, fertilizers & chemicals, machineries, Organic and inorganic metals, etc. The imports in 2006-7 were Rs 8, 40.506 Crores ($ 1, 85,749.2million) while Between April-Dec 2008 it was Rs 10, 53, 055Cr ($ 2, 35,420.7 million).
The average agricultural growth during the time when India’s GDP touched 9% was 4.9%. In 2008-9, it declined to 1.6%. Agricultural production in terms of percentage decrese over 2007-8 Food grain production was 0.4% and vis-à-vis target for 2008-9 was (-) 1.4%.
We seem pleased that our GDP was 9+ for three consecutive years between 2005-8. In 2008-9, it just scrapped through with 6.2%, and our Economists and planners had various explanations as to why it dipped the way it did. They blamed the draught, inflation, world recession, unseasonal rains, Our Exports came drastically down, for our attempt to reach US $ 200 billion was not achieved, but we had to satisfy with $ 168 billion. But we were perceived to be an emerging economic power horse along with Brazil, Russia and China.
Our Five Years plans which has in great theory propounded extensive positive growth levels for which Crores of Rupees are being spent, never achieve accuracy in terms of performance and achievement. The scant respect, we give to agriculture is almost evident from the fact that in a twinkle we go for Import, because of the presence of large hidden money and brokerage involved for those who are custodians of Agriculture Ministry. We seem to forget the basic tenants of the Malthusian theory of Population! Instead of making the farmer self reliant, we write off loans to the extent of Rs 70,000 Cr which result in the party writing off the loan to come back to power. Our targeted growth for agriculture is 4%, and we foresee the growth at a grand some 6% while we achieve 1.6%. Our GDP for Agriculture & allied products was Rs. 5, 57,122 Cr [in 1999-2000 prices] as against Gross Domestic Formation in Agriculture & Allied Sector was Rs 79,328 Cr in 2007-8 wherein the Public sector accounted for 8.2% of the total GCF percentage while Private Sector picked up 6.6% making a total of 7% being the share of Agriculture and allied sectors in total GCF percentage. Our yields are low, productivity dismal, stumpy quality, shrinking yields and diminished performance per hectare. In all the earth yielding crops, Law of Diminishing Returns occurs. The Minimum Support Price which when announced by the Government is most unscientific, due to faulty costing, so much so, that no segment gets the right price, while middle man squeezes the farmer, and the fall out imports devastate indigenous industry. The recent announcement of minimum support prices for various kharif crops has once again called into question certain aspects of the official apathy to agricultural pricing. True to pattern, it has come in late. It is prudent policy that cultivation of specific crops that are in short supply so that the farmers could chose the crops to sow well before the onset of the monsoon season. The twin objective of increasing domestic supply of pulses and making them affordable to the consumers may not be achieved. As with practically all agriculture products, the supply chain linking the farmer to the consumer should be fine-tuned. Crores of Rupees are spent in the R&D institutions. And their achievements are almost empty.
Except for some worthwhile attempts by Dr M S Swaminathan which has seen a semblance of result, our performance to subject the agriculture to modern scientific method of farming to increase yield, extend the area of cultivation has yieldes positive results. We had carry over buffer stocks last year, yet our granneries are impoverished and the Agriculture Ministry wants more import to balance our requirement. Our PDS has broken down due to heavy political inerfearance. Let us take oil seeds cultivation. We produce 237 lakh tonnes, yet edible oil out of oil seeds production fetches around 140 lakh tonnes, against an interim demand of 270 lakh tonnes. We export 130 tonnes, nearly 47%. .
India is a vast country and inhabitants of several of its regions have developed specific preference for certain oils largely depending upon the oils available in the region. For example, people in the South and West prefer groundnut oil while those in the East and North use mustard/rapeseed oil. Likewise several pockets in the South have a preference for coconut and sesame oil. Inhabitants of northern plain are basically hard fat consumers and therefore, prefer Vanaspati, a term used to denote a partially hydrogenated edible oil mixture. Vanaspati has an important role in our edible oil economy. Its production is about 1.2 million tonnes annually. It has around 10% share of the edible oil market. It has the ability to absorb a heterogeneous variety of oils, which do not generally find direct marketing opportunities because of consumers’ preference for traditional oils such as groundnut oil, mustard oil, sesame oil etc. For example, newer oils like soybean, sunflower, rice bran and cottonseed and oils from oilseeds of tree and forest origin had found their way to the edible pool largely through vanaspati route. Of late, things have changed. Through technological means such as refining, bleaching and de-odouraisation, all oils have been rendered practically colourless, odourless and tasteless and, therefore, have become easily interchangeable in the kitchen. Newer oils which were not known before have entered the kitchen, like those of cottonseed, sunflower, palm oil or its liquid fraction (palmolein), soyabean and ricebran. The share of raw oil, refined oil and vanaspati in the total edible oil market is estimated at 35%, 55% and 10% respectively.
We always hold inadequate rainfall as the villain of the piece for our dastard performance in the Agricultural front. Not that India has deficient rainfall. The average annual precipitation of 120 cm is adequate. Even then seven per cent of India’s children under five are malnourished and 52 per cent of the women are anemic. India ranks 66 out of 88 countries on the world’s hunger index. The problem is that we seldom try to address the anomalous distribution of rainfall. We seem blissfully unaware that the distribution pattern is reflected in the number of rainy days, not total rainfall.
Against the backdrop of the perilous food situation which makes for grim reading, we are yet to plan innovations to sustain higher production, quality yield. If we turn to the quantitative symbols or indices, the very first indicator is per capita availability, which in all probability is lower than 162.5 kg a year (estimated in 2006). It was 171.1 kg in 1972. The irony, by way of example, is Coconut is priced Rs 2 at the hands of the farmer while an egg costs Rs Three flashes Malayalam papers. And the Government sits on the Mount doing nothing, effectively nothing.
The relationship between production and per capita availability of food between 1950-51 and 2002-03 show that we messed up the things. Although per capita availability of cereals per day was on par with ‘the required levels’ that of pulses was ‘lower than the average daily requirement of 67.95 grams per head’. The suggestion of experts for ‘certain measures to solve the imbalances in the production of food grains’ alongside an increase in per capita food availability were never heeded and ignored.

The public sector banking system in India should come out of its self-celebratory mode and concentrate on making agriculture sector economically inclusive and self supporting through high intervention and not through lackadaisical feeble attempts in paper.
WPI inflation is about 1.5% while CPI inflation remains in double digits. RBI has revised its estimate of WPI According to government sources, Current bout of inflation is driven by food prices, and monetary policy is not particularly effective in containing inflation driven by supply shortages. However, there is always the chance that food inflation could breed broader inflationary expectations and have a second-round impact on other, core items.
Since monetary policy acts with a lag, a case could be made out for acting ahead of the curve and raising rates in this policy review.
Food prices could ease. The monsoon has been favourable so far and there is adequate moisture in the soil, so the Kharif crop output should be favourable. This would lead to softening of food prices. But what needs to be planned is a well documented and well planned Agricultural Policy which would yield dividends, both in the short to medium term to long term. Not incredible methods like scrapping and writing off the loans already advanced. But an effective method by which funds are available to improve the yield, productivity, and providing of decent price for agricultural produce is the need of the hour. The Minimum Selling price should be market driven, and in some laggard sectors should be fixed and slowly dismantled instead of removing it in one go like the sugar cane pricing which has met strong resistance from the farmers. People with knowledge of Agriculture, agricultural scientists, and agricultural workers should be inducted into Agricultural Ministry. Our R& D Institutions in Agriculture, which has Crores of Rupees of outlay, must be made accountable, if they cannot prescribe Common sense prepositions for growth of Agriculture and its products in a definite time-frame. The Member in the Planning Commission dealing with Agriculture should have atleast an elementary knowledge of Agriculture. People with semblance of knowledge in Planning can give clear-cut direction instead of distorting the Direction, as is vogue today.

America, canny Customer

The American meltdown made its presence in 1990 and gradually rose to hit with wild ferocity in 2006-7. That despite the soaring economy, a recovery in housing prices, the dot-com boom, and a bull market in stocks, America was on the verge of one of the worst financial meltdowns the world would ever see. Ask any Indian exporter, he would say his woes of dollar depreciation and Rupee appreciation began to surface slowly in 2001 and reached menacing proportions after 2006.
The Indian exporters and the Government should take this opportunity to diversify their markets from America, slowly and steadily. It is the need of the hour that alternate markets are found, so that the rhythm of exports would be maintained. Given the present circumstances, the green back getting back to its original glory looks very slim and the American economy is on the throes of a crisis which with least turbulence can bubble.
The supremacy of America as a trading nation has sunk. It is no more a mass market for exploitation, even though markets are open and in plenty but there is no money in these markets. The dollar is not strong. In fact, it’s sinking to record levels of weakness, and it’s going to stay that way for at least some time if not for all the time. .
First, the U.S. Federal Reserve is running a zero-interest-rate policy and has announced that it intends to continue doing so. While it does, there’s easy money to be made out of borrowing dollars and lending almost anything else! That will actually make the dollar drop.
Second, the Internet and all the cheap money slashing around have made it attractive for U.S manufacturers to outsource production to emerging markets, more so than ever before. That leads to big U.S. balance-of-payments deficits. This would help emerging-market wage levels rise fast against U.S. wage levels. This is happening so fast that U.S. wage levels will probably have to drop resulting in higher unemployment levels. This unrest would lead to choes and would affect the outsourcing countries. This is not a win-win situation for the suppliers.
The U.S. government is running huge deficits and pretty much everyone in the United States has one or the other debt in his name. A weak dollar will make all those debts get smaller.
There are some very good reasons why the U.S. dollar is weak. This would force sovereign Governments not to go for U.S. Treasury Bonds with the result that the United States would face liquidity crisis. The budget deficit for the 12-month-period that ends next September will be even larger than the $1.4 trillion shortfall recorded for the 12 months that ended in September of this year.
The only way America can get out of the precarious situation is to stop printing money. The stimulus to sectors would not boost real growth. Fed Chief’s zero-interest-rate policy is sending gold through the roof, and will cause huge trouble down the road. Interest rates need to be higher than inflation. Only then, the Savers get benign interest for saving their money. This would propel other spenders to conserve and save money. Today, as it is, with no incentive for saving, people are not encouraged to save.
The U.S. dollar fell to a 15-month low against a basket of currencies as investors questioned U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman’s ability to return it to strength. The dollar declined to an intraday high of $1.48 against the euro even though the Fed is "attentive" to fluctuations in the value of the greenback and "will help to ensure the dollar is strong." Meanwhile, the falling dollar grew investors' appetite for hard assets, which resulted in the price of gold once again rising to a record $1,140 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).
India, as a Country has to look at enhance bi-lateral trade to emerging markets and other developed markets instead of trying to persist with the US Market which may go for a tail spin. The present economy in the United States and the distress signals emanating from it does not augur well for India to depend upon exclusive American market. Better abandon them slowly and steadily, and try to penetrate into new markets. This is what China is stealthily doing. This is simple arithmetic.

ASEAN Agreement, Kerala's despair

India has inked a pact with the ASEAN (Brunei , Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia , Lao PDR , Malaysia , Myanmar ,Singapore, Thailand , Viet Nam , Philippines ) Countries on 13th August 2009, with the intention to boost bi-lateral trade between India and ASEAN Countries by giving Most Favoured Nation status subject to certain conditions, stipulations, and binding clauses. However, the present Freee Trade Agreement has its origin in the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between the Republic of India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (the Framework Agreement) signed in Bali, Indonesia on 8 October 2003.


India has signed 4 separate Agreements with the ASEAN Countries. They are:- 1] Protocol to Amend the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between the Republic of India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ; 2] Agreement on Dispute Settlement Mechanism under the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between the Republic of India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations; 3] Comprehensive Trade in Goods Agreement under the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between the Republic of India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations ;
4] Understanding on Article 4 of the Trade in Goods Agreement under the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between the Republic of India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.

In the Treaty One, there is an explict Artcile- (2) which talks about reduction/elimination of Applied MFN Tariff rates for normal Track products set out in Paragraph 5(a) (i) to (iii) of Artcile 3 of the Frame Work Agreement gives the date with the year of elimination /conclusion under Track I and Track II. The Agreement shows that the new Agreement is concluded to reiterate the framework Agreement and to reflect the current position in relation to the Early harvest porgramme (EHP).

In the Second agreement, the Agreement on Dispute Settlement Mechanism , its coverage, application, arbitration, consultation, conciliation, mediation, suspension of concession of benefits under Para 4 and 5 of Article 15 can be done only after the Final order of the Arbitration panel set up under the provisions of this Agreement.
Agreement on trade on goods is a 93 page document. Article (4) refers to Tariff Reduction and Elimination. It is stated that tariff Reduction and elimination Schedule is set out in Annexure- I. Annexure I contains the Schedule of tariff Commitments. In the Explanatory notes, under 1 (a) Normal track is defined as MFN tariff rates for tariff lines placed in the Normal track will be reduced and finally eliminated on a time schedule basis. The same procedure will be followed for items placed in the Normal Track (2) as well. Under (b), there is a Sensitive Track, wherein it is stated that applied MFN Tariff rates above 5% for tariff lines in the sensitive track will be reduced by 5% in accordance with the Schedules. Under (c) which has categorized Special products, it is stated that Crude and refined palm oil (CPO and RPO) which has a customs duty of 76% and 86% will be reduced to 37.5% and 45%, and Coffee which has a present duty of 95% will be reduced to 45%, black Tea from the present 95% to 45%, Pepper from 68% to 50% by 31-12-2019. This Agreement also talks about Highly sensitive Lists, wherein the tariff lines are split into 3 categories namely, Category-1 Reduction of applied MFN Tariff to 50%, Category 2 reduction of MFN Tariff to 50%, and category 3 wherein the reduction of applied MFN Tariff to 25%. These reductions would reach the completed phase for Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand (31 Dec 2019), Philippines (Dec 2022), Cambodia and Vietnam (31 Dec 2024). The compendium of clauses which pertain to Safeguard Measures, and the compliance to Artcile XIX of GATT 1994, Agreement on Safeguards in Annexe 1 A to the WTO Agreement, Artcile 5 of the Agreement in Agriculture in Annex 1 A to the WTO Agreement on Agriculture, AIFTA safeguard methodologies, etc. The method of calculation of AIFTA content is detailed in Appendix- A. There is also under (e) an Exclusion List which says that the list shall be subject to an annual tariff review with a view to improving market access. There is an Appendix- C which says that it is a single list of Textiles and Textiles Products based on Harmonized Code prevalent in 2002) wherein Harmonized Code chapters 30,39,42,50,51,52,53,54,55,56,57,58,59,60,61,62,63,63,65,66, 87, 88, 70, 94,95, are described. All types of textiles, both hand made, cotton based, handloom, silk, floor coverings including Coir handmade products, home decorative products, bed sheets, bed covers, pillow covers, floor carpets, woolen fabrics, glass fibres, Coir Rubberized mattresses, pillows, cushions, quilts, etc find a place.

AIFTA Certificate of Origin is defined in Artcile 7, and back to back certificate of Origin appear in Artcile 11 under Operational Certificate protocol. All those bodies who can issue certifications and are presently included in Appendix 4 A of the Hand Book of Procedures, Vol I, are the competent agencies to issue the AIFTA CoOs.

As far as Kerala is concerned, its Rubber, marine products, cashew, coconut, spices, Coir, pepper, Coffee, Tea exports will be affected as ASEAN Countries are having similar crops. These countries have higher productivity and have gone for modernization while the units in the State will have to grapple with old obsolete machinery, high cost of production, shortage of technical experts, poor marketing strategies, etc. Though the Agreement speaks about Sensitive Tracks, Special products, highly sensitive lists, etc, the items which are included in the Lists have not been published as an Appendix or as Annexure. There is also fear amongst the artisans and farmers of Kerala that the lists purported to have been prepared by India may not have been approved, otherwise, the Agreements would contain the Sensitive Lists. The State Government has gone on record and said that there is no negative list, even though the Commerce & Industry Minister has committed in writing about the existence of such a list and send a Copy. But all said and done, the Central Government must present a transparent picture, and should come out with the truth regarding whether the List has been approved by all the ASEAN Countries. Why can’t they publish it in the Commerce Ministry web site to allay the fears of Kerala?

Asia has arrived

Will the 21st century usher in Asian Revolution, just as the 15th Century belonged to the golden age of the Elizabethan era, Industrial Revolution, 17th century to American Revolution and French Revolution and 19th century to the Russian Revolution? The 21 st century Revolution however, will afford a pan loose-knit regional economic integration so that the logistics of an increasingly China-India centric supply chain could bring economy back to rails in Asia.
Asia has proven comparatively resilient against the current downturn, but hurdles still lie ahead. In order to maintain robust growth rates in the face of weak U.S. demand, the region’s dynamic economies must stoke domestic consumption and embrace environmentally sustainable development policies
Asia has arrived. The prospects for increased integration and cooperation between the region’s economies have, indeed, brightened. .
Asia of the past 30 years has done an incredibly well. China and India have driven their economies through export led growth. The Services sector in India has done innumerably well, and have exports worth $ 50 billion plus. But this model is close to having outlived its usefulness. The future of Asia will be more consumer-led, will have a growth dynamic that places greater emphasis on the quality of the growth experience, especially in terms of environmental protection and pollution control.
· Nearly 75% of the world’s economic activity now takes place outside the U.S. Worldwide investments are expected to double to more than $300 trillion in the coming years – with over $150 trillion going to new global markets.
· The steady, growing transfer of wealth and power from industrialized nations to developing regions is happening faster than anyone could have imagined.
Until recently, the global multinationals have seen developing Asia as an off shore production platform, to get goods at a cheaper price because of low labour costs. That concentrated on exports. The other option, to tap the regional consumers whose purchasing power and rising expectations were growing were ignored This is the time, for the multinationals to tap the domestic market, which is easily in their palms to exploit.
The external demands that underpin the export model are chaotic. Even though production size is growing, Asia has been developing while recession fed Europe and American economy which is in deep crisis cannot patronize Asian goods. Even if they want, pricing will be awful. Credit would extend to 6 months to 1 year. Instead of looking externally, the businesses in Asia have to look inward to reap the benefit for the country’s consumers who would average 3.8 billion who have money to buy. Economic development, therefore, depends upon the need to aggressively market its products internally rather than externally. There is no choice.
China’s GDP grew 10.4% to 13.06 trillion Yuan ($ 1.9 trillion) in the first half of the last fiscal. China has been able to quadruple its GDP since 1978. In 2002, with its 1.28 billion people but a GDP of just $ 4600 per capita, China stood as the Second largest economy in the world after United States (measured on a purchasing power parity basis). China also overtook South Africa as world’s largest gold producer in 2008, when its output increased from 270.5 tonne to 300 tonne. China exports to United States dipped by 20.5% to US$957.36 billion. Trade value between China and the country’s three major trade partners, the EU, the U.S. and Japan, was US$292.42 billion, US$239.36 billion, and US$182.34 billion during the first ten months of 2009, which averaged a drop in growth of 18.7%, 14.9% and 19.3%.
India has a well built micro scenario, but a weak macro scenario. The Micro scenario is very positive in India. A large population working in world class competitive companies, well educated, English speaking, competent and hard working talented workforce; highly competent MBA Institutes, stable financial institutions, high class engineering and medical institutions. When we come to the macro platform, India has instable savings, limited FDI, low Diaspora NRI investment, horrible infrastructure, high cost runs as project planning often goes awry in view of plethora of inhibitions at the decision making levels.
Indian exports have been blossoming, from $ 43 billion to US $ 178 billion, nearly three fold, FDI has also grown even though it is no where near to China, and remittances from Indian workers abroad contribute to around 20% of the Foreign Exchange Reserves which is around $ 280 billion.
And the most important layer of India’s ditherness is in its Politics. Between 2004-9, the Government wrote a Common Minimum programme to get the support of the Communists. Reform had to remain very much within the realms of the reformed Congress. In the election held in 2009, Congress has been voted back to power on the plane of better governance and performance. But little of the commitment they gave during election rhetoric is seen translated into action. Expect for a few and far between, the Government continues to blame the inept rains for the diminishing production of food grains leading to inflation in foodstuffs, edible oil, sugar, cerals, wheat etc. The world economy is blamed for the unimpressive show by the dithering exports. There is a huge liquidity in the system yet, the movement of circulation of currency is rather muffled.
Everybody looks to china as the Asian giant. There is no stop over. But India could be the real sleeper in Asia in a couple of years. India should not become excessively export dependent. India is also trying to increase and enhance its trade with China. It is both good and bad. Our over dependence with America should also stop. We should not be constrained by demography, as some of the States are vocal in getting many concessions over other states.
Indian Government has wisely signed a FTA with ASEAN Countries. This would spur more bi-lateral and multilateral trade between India and ASEAN. It is also true that Pakistan instead of wasting their limited resources, should venture into trade so that there will be economic boom which would provide steep employment resulting in their youngsters looking up for jobs instead getting attracted to terrorist activity. Sri Lanka is in the growth plane, after the devastating war which took all its efforts. A new global order with Asia as central point will emerge.